CPCA: National passenger vehicle retail sales from October 1-25 totaled 1.145 million units, down 26% year-on-year.

CPCA data shows that from October 1-25, national passenger vehicle retail sales in the market totaled 1.145 million units, down 26% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 0% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 14.479 million units, down 22% year-on-year. On the manufacturer wholesale side, from October 1-25, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume totaled 1.384 million units, down 22% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 3% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 21.121 million units, down 7% year-on-year. On the new energy side, from October 1-25, national passenger vehicle market NEV retail sales totaled 753,000 units, down 13% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 1% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 8.511 million units, down 13% year-on-year. From October 1-25, national passenger vehicle manufacturer NEV wholesale volume totaled 1.008 million units, up 3% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 6% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 12.458 million units, up 9% year-on-year. Penetration rate: From October 1-25, the NEV retail penetration rate in the national passenger vehicle market was 65.7%; from October 1-25, the NEV wholesale penetration rate for national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 72.9%. Production: In the first through fourth weeks of October, national production of pure fuel light vehicles totaled 386,000 units, down 52% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 1% from the same period last month. In the first through fourth weeks of October, combined production of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles totaled 397,000 units, down 21% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 20% from the same period last month. October 2026 National Passenger Vehicle Market Retail Sales Trend In the first week of October, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 33,000 units, down 25% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 10% from the same period last month. In the second week of October, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 58,000 units, down 22% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 32% from the same period last month. In the third week of October, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 47,000 units, down 29% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 5% from the same period last month. In the fourth week of October, national passenger vehicle market average daily retail sales were 51,000 units, down 26% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 5% from the same period last month. From October 1-25, national passenger vehicle market retail sales totaled 1.145 million units, down 26% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 0% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 14.479 million units, down 22% year-on-year. As the Mid-Autumn Festival fell in late September, October had more effective selling days during the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak consumption season, and terminal foot traffic continued to recover modestly. International high oil prices persist, keeping vehicle operating costs elevated, and fuel vehicle consumption is unexpectedly sluggish. On the consumption side, incremental first-time purchases are temporarily constrained, and replacement of existing vehicles has become an important support for stabilizing growth. The high-end segment is already a red ocean; the opportunity in the auto market lies in the popularization of mid- and low-end vehicles. As sales in the north and central and western regions have recently been relatively weak, the foundation for the October rebound in fuel vehicles has been undermined, making it difficult for winter retail sales to strengthen starting in October, and the willingness to stock inventory early is also weak. October auto market growth came from National Day auto shows, local subsidies, and automaker peak-season promotions, with the market recovery relatively mild. Recent negative headline events in industry public opinion may cause users to develop new hesitation and a wait-and-see attitude toward NEV products overall, which is not conducive to facilitating transactions in October. October 2026 National Passenger Vehicle Manufacturer Wholesale Sales Trend In the first week of October, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 21,000 units, down 32% year-on-year from the same period last October and down 44% from the same period last month. In the second week of October, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 60,000 units, down 7% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 23% from the same period last month. In the third week of October, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 67,000 units, down 22% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 11% from the same period last month. In the fourth week of October, national passenger vehicle manufacturer average daily wholesale volume was 76,000 units, down 24% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 14% from the same period last month. From October 1-25, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume totaled 1.384 million units, down 22% year-on-year from the same period last October and up 3% from the same period last month. Year-to-date cumulative wholesale volume reached 21.121 million units, down 7% year-on-year. In past years, fuel vehicles could claim a share of the "Golden September, Silver October" pie, but this year the winter peak sales period under high oil prices has sharply weakened. Persistently high fuel prices have led to overall sluggish manufacturer sales, with fuel vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume down 52% in the first four weeks. As fuel vehicle retail sales continue to decline significantly, environmental protection data show a relatively large decline in domestic fuel vehicle production in October. Most NEV brands currently lack hot-selling models, but manufacturers still need a stable production pace. As a massive industrial chain system, it is impossible to simply schedule production according to orders; production and sales targets must also be considered, so externally estimated order data diverge considerably from actual corporate sales. The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is conducive to lower battery prices. With the trend of adjustments to NEV export tax rebates and increased export trade constraints next year, this is conducive to improving the rush to export NEVs in the fourth quarter. 2027 Domestic Auto Market Retail Sales Expected to Grow 2% Looking ahead to 2027, the CPCA manufacturer forecasting team believes that with the reverse correction of short-term shock factors, easing cost pressures, and improved product strength on the supply side, if policies and the environment do not change beyond expectations, the domestic auto market is expected to bottom out and recover, with domestic retail growth forecast in the range of 0%-5%, averaging 2%, and market divergence will continue to intensify. Overall, the deep decline in the 2026 auto market is the result of a superposition of reversible short-term factors such as policy pull-forward, oil price shocks, AI cost spillovers, and low consumer willingness. The long-term pattern of range-bound fluctuation with gradual upward breakthroughs has not changed, and the estimated domestic retail position of 18.5 million units in 2026 is already an "abnormal" low. In 2027, the vehicle purchase tax tailwind effect, the Year of the Horse Spring Festival, oil price pullback, and lithium carbonate decline will constitute a dual recovery on the demand and cost sides, while weaker destocking and recovery in the new model supply cycle will provide support from the supply side, making the direction of the auto market bottoming out and recovering relatively clear. At the same time, it should be noted that the 2% domestic retail growth rate is a mild recovery rather than a strong rebound, and the domestic auto market is more likely to be a "weak recovery after bottoming out." Among these factors, weaker destocking means manufacturer-caliber growth will improve markedly, while recovery of new model supply across various segments is the necessary condition for converting suppressed demand into actual transactionsthe sustainability of these two points is more noteworthy than a simple policy tailwind. National Passenger Vehicle Industry Inventory at End-September 2026: 3.21 Million Units, 56 Days of Inventory At end-September 2026, national passenger vehicle industry inventory stood at 3.21 million units, up 70,000 units month-on-month and down 70,000 units year-on-year, forming a characteristic of inventory lingering in the third quarter. Among this, manufacturer inventory accounted for 30%; the inventory from manufacturer vacations in August was replenished in September. The CPCA forecasting team's satisfaction level has continued to plunge to a low level since October 2025. In September 2026, optimism was 38%, and in early October the post-September satisfaction level was 19%expectations were low but satisfaction was also not high, mainly because the impact of high oil prices was too great. The team's optimism for the October market fell to 23%, which is a neutral forecast index for market optimism over the past three months but lower than 38% in September. In September 2026, total inventory of enterprises producing only NEVs rose to 880,000 units, up 30,000 units month-on-month and up 100,000 units from the peak of 780,000 units in November 2025, but flat versus 880,000 units in April 2025. Recently, NEV dealers' manufacturer and channel inventory is facing market retail sales below expectations, and overall industry inventory pressure is relatively high.