Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed. Tech giants' earnings reports are set to make a major impact this week. NVIDIA's GTC Berlin conference is about to kick off.
October 19 (Monday) pre-market: U.S. stock index futures are mixed.
Pre-market market movements
1. On Monday, October 19, before the U.S. stock market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were down 0.19%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.48%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.16%.
2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was down 1.28%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was down 1.17%, France's CAC 40 index was down 1.53%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 1.19%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 0.83% at $98.20 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 1.32% at $108.41 per barrel.
Market News
This week's market outlook: earnings from Meta and other companies and NVIDIA Corporation's GTC conference become a "major test" for AI trades.
The situation around GEO Group Inc continues to stir inflation concerns. After recent setbacks in AI trades, quarterly results due this week from several key companies will test investors' confidence in this rally. Meta (META.US), Lam Research (LRCX.US), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN.US), as well as Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US), will be the focus of this week's earnings. In addition to earnings from Meta and other companies, NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) GTC conference in Berlin, Germany, this week may also become an important "stress test" for the current AI trade. Meanwhile, the recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine is an important reason for the renewed rise in international oil prices and heightened inflation concerns. If oil prices rise further while long-end U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, volatility in the technology sector may increase further.
A South Korean data center IPO tomorrow will test AI investors' confidence. Data center infrastructure company Elice Inc. will list on Tuesday on the KOSDAQ market of South Korean tech stock Yunji, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A, after peer Firmus canceled its highly anticipated listing plan this month, a move that will undoubtedly test artificial intelligence investors' nerves. Data show that the Seoul-based cloud service provider plans to raise 201 billion won (about $151 million) through the IPO, which would be the exchange's largest IPO so far this year. Elice set its offering price at 90,500 won per share - at the upper end of its previously announced price range - giving it a total market value of more than 1 trillion won after listing.
After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq plunged, Morgan Stanley said "get ready to add positions." Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said that as the months-long tech stock correction in some parts of the equity market nears its end, investors should be prepared to increase the equity risk exposure of their portfolios. Although the S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high, market valuations have fallen significantly over the past few months, while market breadth within the index has also deteriorated severely. The strategist said this market pattern - characterized by outperformance of the so-called quality factor and a sharp decline in the equal-weighted S&P 500 index - is about to end, providing investors with a favorable window to buy stocks on dips.
Anthropic co-founder: AI may push U.S. GDP to $44 trillion by 2030. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said on Saturday that an internal economic model predicts U.S. economic output will reach $44 trillion by 2030. The core assumption of this forecast is that rapidly advancing AI capabilities will transform various sectors at a faster pace. In addition, Anthropic said it plans to contribute 5% of its shares to a newly established public interest fund, enabling it to make donations aimed at promoting the "public interest," including mitigating AI's impact on the job market.
U.S. Energy Secretary: Trump paused sanctions on Russia but did not lift them. U.S. Energy Corp. Secretary Wright said Trump has paused sanctions related to Russia but has not lifted them. Wright said: "The main sanctions against Russia remain in effect." He stressed that the United States continues to impose "stricter than ever" restrictions on Russian oil. He further said: "Trump created an exception to the sanctions, limited to diesel exports."
Trump's approval rating falls to 33%, putting Republicans under pressure ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. A poll shows Trump's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and as inflation pressures intensify and voter sentiment grows increasingly dissatisfied, support for Democrats in the fight for congressional control is rising. Trump's approval rating is currently 33%, with a disapproval rating of 66%; 52% of respondents said they strongly disapprove of his performance. This approval rating is down 8 percentage points from the same period last year and is lower than at any point during his first term.
Street flames spread to the bond market, pushing France's fiscal predicament to the cliff edge. After a weekend of violent riots, French government bonds fell, highlighting tensions between protesters angered by the cost of living and a government unable to spend money to maintain stability. French government bonds underperformed those of other European countries, with the spread between 10-year French and German government bonds widening by as much as 8 basis points to 146 basis points, the highest in two weeks. The spread with Italian government bonds hit a record, while the euro weakened and the CAC 40 index fell. Over the weekend, a wave of attacks targeting public buildings, shops, and restaurants occurred in many parts of France. However, a mountain of debt and one of the eurozone's largest budget deficits mean the government cannot simply calm the public by increasing spending.
Individual Stock News
NVIDIA Corporation's GTC Berlin conference is about to open, and Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech. From October 20 to 22 local time, NVIDIA Corporation's GTC conference will be held in Berlin, Germany, and Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech on the 21st. As NVIDIA Corporation's most closely watched technology and ecosystem conference in the second half of the year, this GTC shifts the focus further from "selling GPUs" to "selling AI factories." According to official introductions, the conference will feature more than 100 specialized sessions covering the full AI technology stack and will focus on accelerated computing, agentic AI, physical AI, Siasun Robot&Automation, open-source models, AI infrastructure, and other areas.
NVIDIA Corporation to produce customized NVHBM? Industry insiders say customized base dies have become a trend. Reports say NVIDIA Corporation has asked Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) to use base dies made with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's (TSM.US) 3nm process to produce NVHBM (NVIDIA Corporation's customized HBM technology; HBM refers to high-bandwidth memory), while core dies will use sixth-generation DRAM (dynamic random access memory) technology. Samsung Electronics has decided to accept NVIDIA Corporation's technical requirements. Regarding the authenticity of this matter, Samsung Electronics responded on October 19 that the company does not comment on matters involving customers.
In response to NVIDIA Corporation's standardization requirements, Samsung will cooperate with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR for the first time to produce HBM. It is reported that Samsung Electronics will use Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's 3nm process to produce base chips for NVIDIA Corporation's next-generation customized high-bandwidth memory; NVIDIA Corporation has asked Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, Inc. to use Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's 3nm process to manufacture NVHBM base chips; the core chips will uniformly use the 1c process, namely the sixth-generation DRAM process.
Musk: Next year, every child in the United States will receive one share of SpaceX stock. Musk posted on a social platform: Next year, I will give one share of my SpaceX stock to every child in the United States. This is only the first step in a series of future actions. According to the latest statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau and demographic data, there are about 72 million to 73 million children in the United States (referring to minors aged 0-17). Based on 72 million children and SpaceX's current price of about $146.03 per share, giving one share to each child would be worth about $10.5 billion, or about 70.2 billion yuan.
Citigroup (C.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) collectively guard against AI Agents. Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase have successively restricted AI agents from accessing customer accounts and executing trades on their behalf, mainly due to concerns that AI tools will automatically transfer funds into higher-yield products, threatening trillions of dollars in low-cost deposits. At present, there is still a blank space in determining transaction liability, and Federal Reserve regulators privately support this. Banks are responding to the profit challenges caused by AI through technical safeguards and by increasing deposit stickiness.
The $24.6 billion merger dream is shattered! Albertsons Companies, Inc. Class A (ACI.US) settles scores and seeks $9.3 billion in sky-high damages from Kroger Co. (KR.US). Nearly two years after the largest U.S. supermarket chain merger fell apart, Albertsons Companies, Inc. Class A and Kroger Co. are about to bring this legal dispute to court. The focus of the dispute is whether Kroger Co. is responsible for the failure of the $24.6 billion deal. In December 2024, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission said that merging more than 4,000 stores would give the two companies excessive market power, and a federal court accordingly halted the deal. Albertsons Companies, Inc. Class A is asking Kroger Co. to pay more than $9.3 billion, including a $600 million termination fee plus interest and expenses, as well as more than $8 billion that Albertsons Companies, Inc. Class A claims is the premium loss shareholders could have received from the deal and taxes on related gains.
Important economic data and event previews
20:30 Beijing time: Canada September seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year.
Next day Beijing time: NVIDIA Corporation GTC Berlin conference.
Earnings preview
Tuesday pre-market: GE Aerospace (GE.US), General Motors Company (GM.US)
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