Transformer exports are currently booming, but can they remain prosperous for another two to three years? With the upgrade of offshore models, SST has stated that "no one has orders."

In the context of the aging renovation of power grids in Europe and America, the outbreak of AI computing power infrastructure, and the expansion of new energy integration, the export volume and price of Chinese transformers continue to rise. Recent interviews conducted by Caishishe reporters with many listed companies in the industry chain have found that leading transformer companies are generally experiencing full order books, with some companies already initiating expansion plans and others raising product prices. Industry insiders predict that the high prosperity of traditional transformer exports can last for at least another 2-3 years. As for the next generation technology that is currently being highly sought after by the capital market - solid-state transformers (SST), most companies are still in the stage of sample verification or research and development. Companies like Eaglerise Electric & Electronic have stated that it may not be until 2028 that they see commercial orders exceeding ten units. Continued High Prosperity: Leading companies have full order books, while latecomers are "accelerating" Public information shows that in the first four months of 2026, the total export amount of transformers was 21.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; in April, the export amount was 4.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, setting a new record high for export amount. At the same time, the unit price of products continues to rise, with the average price per unit increasing by about one-third compared to the same period in 2025. Caishishe reporters, posing as investors, called many listed companies and found that leading companies have ample order reserves, and production schedules are generally being extended. The capacity utilization rate of leading companies remains high. For example, TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) stated, "Overseas orders are indeed quite full, with a production cycle usually ranging from 3-6 months, and even longer for some large projects." A company spokesperson told Caishishe. In the first quarter, the company's international contracts for substation projects amounted to approximately 621 million US dollars, representing a 30% year-on-year increase. Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric (601567.SH) revealed to reporters from the securities department, "(The company has) business in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, and has not yet entered the North American distribution market. The European meter channels can be reused, and in March of this year, we entered the high-end distribution market in Western Europe for the first time, winning an order worth over 900 million in the Netherlands." The financial report shows that the company's overseas accessories revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.66%. "This year will be a clear turning point for performance. The demand in the American market is very strong, and we are mainly targeting large IDC operators and power companies in North America." A person in charge of Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Electric (300617.SZ), which was previously not well known in the transformer field, told Caishishe reporters that the company currently has tracking orders exceeding 100 million US dollars in North America, has publicly announced the signing of the first 9 million US dollar order, and directly supplies products to third-party data center operators for tech giants such as Microsoft. The company has also obtained production certification from two American power companies in Ohio and Los Angeles, and is expected to become the first listed company in China to break into the supply of main transformers for American power companies. Caishishe reporters noted that the overseas business gross profit margins of various listed companies are generally better than domestic ones. A representative from Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (002922.SZ) told Caishishe reporters that the company's exports to Europe and America account for over 70%, with overseas gross profit margins 15-16 percentage points higher than domestic ones. A representative from Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Electric revealed that the company's overseas gross profit margin is between 50% and 70%, while domestically it is only 10%-15%. A person from the securities department of Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ) also admitted that the situation for transformer exports this year is good, saying, "Our exports are mainly to foreign countries, with a delivery period of 6-9 months, much faster than the 2-3 years required for deliveries within the US." He also emphasized that the prices for transformers of the same specifications in the North American market are 7 times higher than in the domestic market, with a gross margin exceeding 50%, but the company remains cautious about the prospects for the North American market. However, not all companies are benefiting from the high prosperity. China XD Electric (601179.SH) personnel stated that, due to their status as a state-owned enterprise, the company faces market access barriers in Europe and America, and although their overseas revenue increased by 54% in 2025, the profit margin was lower than domestic due to the long project cycles. Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric (600550.SH) also candidly told Caishishe reporters that the overseas gross profit margin of the company is similar to the domestic one, mainly affected by factors such as current costs and tariffs. Regarding the trend of transformer exports, a person from Eaglerise Electric & Electronic believes that this cycle can only be seen clearly for another two to three years as the market is changing and linear extrapolation is not possible. Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Electric's strategy is to "secure as many orders as possible during this window of opportunity." Three-fold demand drive, upgrading of overseas models Benefiting from the imperative need for grid upgrades in Europe and America, the exponential growth in demand for transformers due to the integration of new energy sources, and the construction of AI data centers, the momentum of transformer exports remains strong. It is reported that over 50% of the power grids in the United States have been in operation for over 25 years, making power supply a core bottleneck for the expansion of the AI industry, and around 40% of distribution grids in Europe have been in operation for over 40 years. At the same time, with the rapid development of new energy sources, the number of transformers required for a photovoltaic power station is 1.8 times that of a thermal power station of the same scale. Bank of America data shows that the US has approved a total of 75 billion US dollars for transmission expansion projects, and the EU plans to invest 1.2 trillion euros in upgrading the grid over the next decade. A representative from Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric told Caishishe reporters that the core increase in overseas orders comes from grid construction, with Southeast Asia and Europe experiencing faster growth this year; the company's overseas focus is mainly on new energy integration and data centers, with new energy integration transformers accounting for a large portion. A representative from Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Electric believes that the shortage of transformers in the United States will last for at least three years, with orders from leading equipment suppliers scheduled until 2028-2029, providing Chinese companies with a window of opportunity due to their lead time advantage. Under the drive of demand, the overseas model is also evolving from simple product exports to diversification in areas such as "establishing factories overseas, EPC contracts, and technical joint ventures." Eaglerise Electric & Electronic has established production capacity in Thailand, Mexico, and the United States; TBEA Co., Ltd. has production bases in India; Huaming Power Equipment (002270.SZ) has established capacity in Turkey and Indonesia; Sieyuan Electric has successfully entered North America through a joint venture with Toshiba. In addition, Jiangsu Ankura Intelligent Electric is also planning to establish overseas production capacity. However, industry insiders warn investors to pay attention to risks: firstly, the 25% "301 clause" tariff imposed by the US on transformers from China and anti-dumping duties, and secondly, the fact that a large part of the production line for power transformers relies on manual processes, with skilled technicians taking several years to train. Bulk orders for SST overseas still need time Solid-state transformers (SST) are seen as the next generation of power transformation devices, replacing the traditional "iron core + oil-immersed" solution. They are only 1/5 to 1/10 the size of traditional transformers, with an efficiency of up to 98.5%, and can flexibly convert between AC and DC, making them the optimal power supply path for AI data centers. Caishishe reporters' research found that in terms of overseas orders for SST, several companies have explicitly stated that they are still in the stage of "sample verification and research and development," and bulk orders will take some time. "The SST systems for overseas data centers have not yet entered the stage of large-scale deployment, and the technology architecture is still evolving towards 800V. Currently, no one has received overseas data center SST orders." A representative from Newonder Special Electric (301120.SZ) told Caishishe reporters frankly that SST is currently mainly used in demonstration projects and no large-scale orders have appeared yet. Earlier, the announcement of Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676.SH) providing power products for an overseas customer's data center project worth nearly 700 million yuan attracted market attention. However, a company official made it clear to Caishishe reporters that the "700 million large overseas order" is for the company's main products, and does not include SST products. According to the official, the company's SST prototype has been developed and produced, and is currently undergoing upgrades, but mass production has not yet been achieved. A representative from China XD Electric told Caishishe reporters that in September 2023, the company delivered three solid-state transformers to the "Dongshu Xisuan" data center as part of an engineering prototype verification. Since then, there have been no mass deliveries, and the amount of orders in hand for the company's SST is minimal. "The industry as a whole is still in the early stages of development. Currently, the entire industry is in contact with overseas data center customers, and the company has not yet secured any overseas market orders." In the view of the representative from Newonder Special Electric, the earliest demand landing for SST may be around 2027-2028. In the field of charging piles, SST applications may be the first to be implemented, as "many ultra-fast charging stations are actually like small data centers." In addition, the potential market for high-frequency isolation transformers includes areas such as direct connection to renewable energy and hydrogen production, with an estimated overall market size of around 20-30 billion yuan. This article is reprinted from Caishishe, GMTEight editor: Chen Wenfang.