Stalemate in US-Iran negotiations: Oil prices rise for the fifth consecutive time, and Brent crude briefly surpasses $107, reaching a ten-day high.

Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the confrontation between the US and Iran is escalating, with both sides and peace negotiations at a standstill. Geopolitical risks are rapidly increasing, driving international oil prices to rise for five consecutive trading days, while the US dollar also strengthens simultaneously, reaching a ten-day high. Geopolitical conflicts are difficult to resolve in the short term, leading to a surge in international oil prices again. On Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil rose to around $97 per barrel, while Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $107 per barrel during trading, closing at $105 per barrel and accumulating a 16% increase for the week. According to two US officials familiar with the situation, Trump's posts on the Truth Social platform and his decision to continue imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports have had a negative impact on negotiations conducted through mediators such as Pakistan. Since the outbreak of war at the end of February, the global energy market has been continuously impacted, with navigation in the crucial energy passage of the Strait of Hormuz almost halted, leading to a sharp reduction in export volumes from major oil and gas producing countries in the Persian Gulf. Concerns about the stalemate in peace negotiations have intensified, with both sides engaging in escalating rhetoric and increasing military threats, all of which have added geopolitical premiums to oil prices. International oil prices have surged significantly this week. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of BOK Financial Securities Inc., said, "The tense situation is further escalating - market expectations for the confrontation will be more intense and last longer." Trump posted on social media on Thursday that he had ordered the US Navy to "take down" ships laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to rise. Meanwhile, the US military boarded a super tanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean, and the US Navy strengthened its blockade of Iranian sea routes. Negotiations between the US and Iran have been hindered, with both sides deadlocked on key issues such as Iran's nuclear capabilities and Israeli actions in Lebanon. Trump stated through social media that the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon would be extended for three weeks. However, partial easing is difficult to reverse the overall tense situation, and market expectations of a short-term end to the conflict are quickly cooling. Safe-haven sentiment rises, US dollar continues to strengthen. As energy markets heat up, the foreign exchange market is also fluctuating. Influenced by the intensifying Middle East conflict and rising safe-haven sentiment, the US dollar has strengthened for the third consecutive day. On Thursday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.3% at one point, hitting a new high since April 13th before narrowing slightly. All G10 currencies against the US dollar fell, with the New Zealand dollar leading the decline. On Thursday, the euro fell by 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.1669, as the region is highly dependent on energy supplies from the Middle East. With escalating tensions between the US and Iran, the US dollar is strengthening. Andrew Hazlett, a forex trader at Monex Inc., said, "The continuous rise in oil prices is driving the strength of the US dollar. Traders believe that the escalating tensions over the past few days indicate that the end of the conflict is no longer imminent." Brendan Fagan, a strategist at Bloomberg, said, "If rising energy costs begin to significantly push up inflation expectations, tighten financial conditions, and suppress global economic growth, the relative resilience of the US economy should once again become a support for the US dollar." Aroop Chatterjee, a strategist at Wells Fargo, said, "The US blockade measures, combined with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly increased the tail risks of the situation intensifying again. With various conflicts unresolved, the impact on energy supply will become more severe over time. The market's complacency is being put to test."