A new round of Iran negotiations, but the stock market is completely indifferent, completely focused on "AI bottlenecks" such as CPUs and optical communication.

Goldman Sachs believes that behind the repeated record highs of the US stock market, risks are quietly accumulating. On April 24, Goldman Sachs' Delta One trading desk warned that despite the market's continuous rebound and the S&P 500 hitting historic highs again, there has been no substantial improvement in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' trading desk, pointed out that negotiations are easy to start, but solving problems is much more difficult. Currently, crude oil prices continue to rise, inventories are depleting rapidly, but the stock market seems to be turning a blind eye to all of this. (Growth in US stocks since April) Goldman Sachs believes that the current market is focusing all attention on the AI-driven demand narrative, while the focus is shifting from GPUs upstream to CPUs and optical communication, which are becoming new supply bottlenecks, echoing shortages in various parts of the supply chain such as DRAM, packaging, power, and cooling. Strait of Hormuz: Fragile ceasefire, inventory in urgent need According to analysis from Goldman Sachs' Delta One trading desk, the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not seen any substantial improvement. The current ceasefire status remains fragile, and the market predicts the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is also pessimistic, believing that the probability of solving the problem before the end of May is less than forty percent. The more immediate pressure comes from the inventory side. Privorotsky pointed out that inventories are being rapidly consumed, and each additional day of closure will exacerbate the compound effect of the problem. The finished oil market has provided a clear signal: prices of gasoline, heating oil, and diesel are all hitting new highs. He emphasized that the current misalignment of oil tankers, limited refining capacity, and tight finished oil market indicate that even if positive news emerges, the actual impact will continue to ferment. From a trading perspective, Goldman Sachs believes that going long on December 2026 Brent crude oil futures remains the best way to express the current situation. AI narrative taking over pricing, from GPU to CPU and optical communication One of the reasons why the stock market remains immune to energy risks is the impressive performance of tech companies in the first quarter. Privorotsky pointed out that AI-driven demand remains the market focus, with Siemens Energy's orders exceeding expectations and Intel's strong performance further strengthening the narrative of "more computing power, more power, more infrastructure." It is worth noting that the main thread of this story is evolving: gradually extending from GPUs to memory and the broader AI "scaffolding" field, namely CPUs and optical interconnection. Various parts of the supply chain, including DRAM, packaging, power, and cooling, have shown signs of bottlenecks, becoming new structural tension points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF has closed higher for 18 consecutive trading days, setting a record high, with prices already factoring in a considerable degree of expectations. Technical signals and positioning are becoming fragile, and asymmetry is starting to reverse In technical terms, Privorotsky pointed out that the current trend of US stocks is largely reflective of energy prices. His model shows that the current stage is the "end of the cycle tightening" stage - which is typically one of the worst-performing quadrants for risk assets, characterized by a flattening yield curve and higher long-term interest rates. The divergence between short-term interest rates and the stock market still exists. If energy prices fall, this divergence is expected to converge; if energy remains high, the divergence will further intensify. In terms of volatility, the European market is showing a "bearish gamma" feature, while the US market may return to the "bullish gamma" range after a rapid rebound. On the positioning side, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has announced that the exposure index for holding risks has risen to 94, indicating a significant increase in investor risk appetite across multiple indicators. At the same time, as the end of the month approaches, the selling pressure from the end-of-month rebalancing in the US stock market is one of the largest on record. Privorotsky judged that from a longer time frame, the technical buying drive has clearly weakened, and asymmetry is beginning to shift downwards. He said: From a more macro perspective, the technical buying momentum here is weakening, and the asymmetry is starting to tilt in another direction. I have been and will continue to remain cautious at this point. This article is from "Wall Street News", written by Bai Yilong, edited by GMTEight: Chen Qiuda