JP Morgan: Macau's gaming revenue in February is mixed, adjusting the full-month forecast. Preferred choice is GALAXY ENT(00027).

JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating the updated preference order for Macau gaming stocks. The top choice is GALAXY ENT (00027), with a "buy" rating; followed by MGM CHINA (02282), also rated as "buy"; Sands China (01928) and WYNN MACAU (01128) closely follow, both receiving a "buy" rating. Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. Sponsored ADR (MLCO.US) is rated as "neutral", while MELCO INT'L DEV (00200) and SJM HOLDINGS (00880) are both rated as "sell". The bank suggests investors to be selective in the Macau market, focusing on individual stock consensus risks and valuation levels, rather than waiting for a broad reassessment. According to the bank's analysis, Macau's total gaming revenue for the first 22 days of February was 14.3 billion Macau patacas (MOP), approximately 650 million MOP daily. The average daily revenue last week, covering the quiet and peak periods of the Lunar New Year holiday, was 785 million MOP, lower than the bank's expectation of 850 million MOP. The bank stated that the performance was sluggish at the beginning of the holiday, with daily revenue of around 450 million MOP for the first 4 to 5 days, recording a double-digit decline compared to the previous year. However, from the 6th day onwards, activities surged, with daily total gaming revenue exceeding 1.2 billion MOP, indicating a 10% to 15% year-on-year growth. The holiday is not over yet, and the next few days are crucial as the post-holiday "trailing demand" phase is usually when high-end players accelerate their spending. The bank will have a comprehensive understanding of the situation after obtaining the full month data over the weekend. Given the mixed performance of the Lunar New Year, the bank has slightly adjusted its February gaming revenue forecast to be flat to a 2% increase year-on-year (previously forecasted growth of 2% to 5%). Excluding seasonal and calendar factors, the bank expects a 12% to 13% growth in gaming revenue for the first two months of 2026 (previously forecasted growth of 13% to 14%), in line with the bank's and the market's industry forecasts.