The preliminary data for fourth quarter GDP in the United States is soon to be announced, with the market generally expecting economic growth to be significantly lower than the previous quarter.

The market generally expects that the US economy will still maintain some resilience by the end of 2025, but the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to slow significantly compared to the previous quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the preliminary value of the fourth quarter GDP adjusted for inflation on Friday at 21:30 Beijing time. According to a consensus survey of economists by FactSet, the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be 1.9% on an annualized basis, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth rate recorded in the third quarter. Media consensus forecasts are relatively optimistic, predicting a fourth-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 2.8%, but still lower than the previous quarter. Analysts believe that the differences in forecasts partly stem from differences in judgments about ongoing changes in trade flows and the impact of the government shutdown. The 43-day government shutdown starting from October 1st was the longest in US history, during which federal spending was significantly constrained, exerting a drag on the GDP in the fourth quarter. In terms of structure, consumer spending remains the main driver of economic growth in the fourth quarter, but the momentum has slowed down. Retail sales data shows that the recovery of consumer activity was mainly concentrated in October and November, while December remained relatively flat. Oliver Allen, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expects that the annualized growth rate of consumer spending in the fourth quarter will be around 2.5%, lower than the 3.5% in the third quarter. He points out that despite the slowdown, the US economy retained a considerable amount of internal momentum at the end of last year. Overall, economists generally expect that the performance in the fourth quarter will keep the US GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2025 at around 2%, which is considered a relatively healthy growth range. In terms of investment, the market expects a moderate increase in private fixed asset investment in the fourth quarter, but government spending and residential investment still face pressure. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that due to the impact of the government shutdown, government spending in the fourth quarter will decrease by 17.5% on an annualized basis compared to the third quarter, which may lead to a negative drag of up to 1.1 percentage points on the GDP. Trade factors also pose pressure on economic growth in the fourth quarter. According to data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday, the US trade deficit widened to $703 billion in December, higher than $530 billion in November, mainly due to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide Financial Markets, pointed out that the trade policy in 2025 led to significant fluctuations in trade flows, especially on the import side, but looking at the whole year, the trade deficit only narrowed by $21 billion year-on-year, a decrease of about 0.2%. Specifically in December, the net exports decreased by around $5 billion, mainly due to the continuous normalization of gold exports. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, said that stronger imports will technically drag down economic growth, and net exports could contribute as a larger negative factor to the GDP in the fourth quarter, or at least bring about a smaller positive effect. Klachkin also pointed out that as the peak impact of tariffs on the economy may have passed, trade activities in 2026 are expected to return to a more predictable pace, reducing disturbances to macroeconomic data.