Trump issues "final ultimatum" to Iran! Middle East situation suddenly tense, oil and gold prices both rise.

As US President Trump sets a deadline for negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue, geopolitical risks have sharply increased, driving international oil prices and gold prices higher. According to reports, Trump stated that Iran has a maximum of 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, or face consequences. This statement marks a significant escalation of pressure by the US on Iran. Meanwhile, the US is carrying out its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the Iraq war in 2003, which the market interprets as a reserve option for potential ongoing military action. As a result, international oil prices have held steady near a six-month high. At the time of writing, the US WTI crude oil futures price was slightly below $67 per barrel, having risen by approximately 7% over the previous two trading days; Brent crude oil futures settled near $72 per barrel. The main risk facing oil prices is that if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for Middle Eastern oil exports, it could impact global oil supply. Due to traders continuously evaluating the potential impact of regional conflicts on supply, oil prices have already risen by about 17% this year. The region's oil production accounts for approximately a third of global production, surpassing the pressure on oil prices caused by the expected oversupply by the end of 2025. Risk premiums continue to rise and are reflected in the crude oil options market. For most of this year, due to the risk of skyrocketing prices, the trading price of call options has remained much higher than put options. On Wednesday, Brent crude oil call options equivalent to 10 million barrels for June trading at $100 per barrel changed hands. After the US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in crude oil inventory of 9 million barrels (the largest since early September), the bullish momentum strengthened. Finished oil inventories have also declined across the board. Gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, has also shown strong performance, steadying around $5000 per ounce. In the previous two trading days, the price of gold had already risen by over 2%. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned that the US military deployment meant that Iran's window of opportunity to resolve the nuclear issue through diplomatic means was closing. Market analysts pointed out that the negotiation window given by the Trump administration this time is extremely urgent, and accompanied by unprecedented military pressure, reminiscent of the situation before the US carried out a military strike on Iran in June last year. At that time, Trump also stated "give diplomacy two weeks" but action was taken just two days later. Currently, although large-scale military action is a topic of discussion, reports indicate that the White House does not rule out taking limited early strikes to compel the Iranian government back to the negotiating table. In addition to geopolitics, the uncertainty of US interest rate path also supports the price of gold. Lower borrowing costs usually benefit interest-free assets like gold, making the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction another focus of the market. Reports suggest that given recent data showing a stronger-than-expected US economy, Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Milan has softened his previous calls for a significant rate cut this year. The US dollar index has already risen by 0.8% this week. Since experiencing historic sell-offs earlier this month, the gold market has been extremely volatile. At that time, the price of gold dropped from a peak of over $5595 per ounce in just two days, plummeting to near $4400. The speculative buying frenzy in January accelerated the multi-year trend in gold to a critical point. However, the fundamental factors that supported the rise in gold prices earlier, including funds continuing to withdraw from sovereign bonds and currencies, remain largely stable. Given the tense situation surrounding Iran, the safe-haven value of gold has once again become a focus. After experiencing widespread turmoil, Iranian leaders are deeply concerned about the stability of their regime. A significant strike against Iran could see the US embroiled in its third self-initiated war in the Middle East since 1991.