"Under the 'software panic sell-off', who are the winners and losers? Wedbush and Goldman Sachs provide some reference answers."

Against the backdrop of rapid development in artificial intelligence, the market has sparked fears of "AI replacement," leading to a significant sell-off in the US software sector. In this context, alternative asset management companies and direct lending institutions, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., have also been impacted. However, some experts, including Wall Street analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush, still see investment opportunities in this sector. Dan Ives, the Global Tech Research Director at Wedbush Securities, believes that this year will be a breakthrough year for Apple Inc. (AAPL.US). In an interview, Ives predicted that artificial intelligence could increase the company's valuation per share by "75 to 100 dollars," refuting concerns from European regulatory agencies and pointing out Apple Inc.'s proactive strategic positioning in the consumer AI field. He compared this situation to the strong performance of Alphabet (GOOGL.US) last year. Jeff Kilburg, Founder, CEO, and CIO of KKM Financial, noted that investors have been selling off previous winners like NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Meta (META.US) and buying into laggards like Apple Inc. and Alphabet, which provided buying opportunities during the downturn in April last year following the tariff announcement. Kilburg is particularly bullish on Alphabet's momentum, noting that the company's revenue has exceeded 400 billion dollars for the first time. He also highlighted the efficiency improvements in Alphabet Inc. Class C's Gemini platform, which can currently process 10 billion tokens per minute, with service costs decreasing by 78% over the year. Despite labeling it as a "software doomsday," with a massive sell-off occurring across the industry, both analysts see opportunities arising from this turmoil. Ives described the current moment as a "knocking on the table" opportunity to buy oversold stocks like Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US), CrowdStrike (CRWD.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), and ServiceNow (NOW.US). Ives stated, "We will look back at this as a great time to buy those stocks that I believe have been heavily sold off." The analysts also discussed the volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with Kilburg comparing MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) to a "falling knife" that has dropped 72% from its all-time high. Kilburg indicated that cryptocurrencies are currently facing a test and can become overly bearish during tough times, not aligning with the overall global macro sentiment. However, despite the current uncertainties in the tech and cryptocurrency markets, both analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook. Ives described the sell-off as a "digestive period," rather than a fundamental shift. He emphasized that "this is not the end," and the indiscriminate selling provides significant opportunities for investors willing to withstand market fluctuations. Meanwhile, a team led by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analyst Alexander Blostein recently stated that concerns regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the software industry continue to persist, putting pressure on alternative asset management companies and direct lending institutions. In the past month, the VanEck Alternatives Manager ETF (GPZ) has dropped by 14%, while the S&P 500 index has only fallen by 0.8% during the same period. Additionally, the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) has fallen by 7.8% in the past month. Blostein and his colleagues wrote in a report to clients, "The significant sell-off in alternative asset management firms is mainly due to investor concerns about the software exposure of the group in private equity and private credit business, and the growth impact that may arise if investment performance deteriorates." Although data is limited, especially in the private equity investment sector, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s preliminary assessment shows that the software exposure of alternative asset management firms at the enterprise level is "relatively small," with the private equity software sector accounting for about 5% of total management fees. They indicated that the average share of software management fees from private credit/direct lending is similar. Of course, there are differences among companies. TPG (TPG.US) and KKR (KKR.US) have relatively higher shares in the private equity sector, with each accounting for single-digit percentages in the software industry. Blue Owl (OWL.US) and Ares Management (ARES.US) have relatively higher shares in the private credit sector, accounting for 13% and 8% of management fees, respectively. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysts estimate that the risk exposure to software investments is minimal for Carlyle Group Inc. (CG.US), Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO.US), and Bruker Corporation (BAM.US).