Guotai Haitong: Policy injection drives consumption momentum, bullish on three-party acquisition "shovel" companies.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that at the beginning of the 26th year, frequent consumer promotion policies and the continuous advancement of the domestic demand strategy will accelerate the boost of consumer confidence and drive the expansion of consumer demand. Third-party acquirers are expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption. Compared to 2025, in 2026, the "national subsidy" has been optimized in terms of the scope of subsidy support, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: - A major policy to boost service consumption by the State Council. On January 29, 2026, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption," aiming to optimize and expand service supply, promote the quality and benefits of service consumption. The "Work Plan" proposes support policies in three aspects. First, focusing on key areas such as transportation services, household services, online audiovisual services, accommodation services, aftermarket automotive services, and inbound consumption, efforts will be made to optimize service supply, promote pilot projects, innovate consumption scenarios, and strengthen talent training to stimulate development vitality. Second, focusing on potential areas such as performance services, sports events services, emotional and experiential services, efforts to improve incentive mechanisms, optimize safety management, cultivate quality brands, and build platform carriers to foster development momentum. Third, by improving standards systems, enhancing credit construction, and strengthening financial support, support and guarantees for cultivating new growth points in service consumption will be enhanced. - "National subsidy" continues in 2026, optimization of "two new" policies. On December 30, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Large-scale Equipment Renewal and the Replacement of Consumables with New Ones in 2026." Compared to 2025, the "national subsidy" has been optimized in terms of the scope of subsidy support, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms for 2026. At the same time, to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies and meet the peak consumption demand of New Year's and Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, has already allocated the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of long-term special national bonds to support the funding plan for the replacement of consumables with new ones in 2026 to the local level. - On December 16, 2025, the journal "Qiushi" published an article by the General Secretary titled "Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Move." The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is not just a matter of economic stability but also economic security. It is not a temporary measure but a strategic move. The article points out that implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary to maintain China's long-term sustainable and healthy economic development and to meet the increasing demand for a better life by the people. It is important to quickly address the shortcomings in domestic demand, especially in consumption, making domestic demand the driving force for economic growth and a stable anchor. The article also highlights that the current economic operation is facing the prominent contradiction of insufficient total demand. It is important to resolutely implement the outline of the strategy to expand domestic demand, establish a complete domestic demand system as soon as possible, and focus on expanding consumption demand supported by income, investment demand with reasonable returns, and financial demand constrained by capital and debt. Risk warning: Policy fluctuation risk; Policy implementation falling short of expectations; Consumer recovery falling short of expectations.