Zhongjin: The 2026 Spring Festival box office faces a high base, focusing on the flexibility of domestic films.

Zhongjin released a research report, according to Maoyan Professional Edition, as of 12:00 on January 28, 2026, a total of 6 movies have been scheduled to premiere on February 17 (Chinese New Year), and the scheduled movies, such as "Speed Life 3", "Silent Spring", "Bodyguard", have attracted high attention. Industry reserves include "The Great Offender" and "Battle of Penghu". The Spring Festival season is an important period at the beginning of the year, often laying the foundation for the annual box office development and has the potential to catalyze the elasticity of single film box office. The scheduled release time for domestic films in the 2026 Spring Festival season is somewhat late (about a month later than in 2025), and the box office for the season also faces the high base number impact brought by "Ne Zha 2" in 2025. Key points from Zhongjin are as follows: The box office effect of the Spring Festival season helps catalyze the elasticity of single films. According to Enbase data, the box office for the Spring Festival season from 2021 to 2025 is 78/60/68/82/95 billion yuan respectively, accounting for about 17%/20%/12%/19%/19% of the annual box office. According to Maoyan Professional Edition, 6 of the top 10 films on the China Film Group box office list are from the Spring Festival season, including "Ne Zha: The Devil Child Conquers the Sea" (total box office approximately 15.5 billion yuan) and "Man Jiang Hong" (total box office approximately 4.5 billion yuan) released within the last three years. The Spring Festival season is an important period at the beginning of the year, often laying the foundation for the annual box office development and has the potential to catalyze the elasticity of single film box office. In 2026, 6 movies have been scheduled for the Spring Festival season, and the box office faces the impact of a high base number. Zhongjin points out that the scheduled release time for domestic films in the 2026 Spring Festival season is somewhat late (about a month later than in 2025), and the box office for the season also faces the impact of the high base number brought by "Ne Zha 2" in 2025. As the import films "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" have been delayed to the 2026 Spring Festival season, the production companies of domestic films may be concerned about market share pressure, leading to more cautious scheduling and conservative promotion rhythms. Overall, the current audience viewing demand is showing a trend of concentration at the top, and there is a possibility of unexpected box office success when market expectations are low. Estimated box office revenue for 7 days in a neutral scenario is 7.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 21%. Zhongjin believes that the consumption power of the lower-tier markets has increased in recent years, and the trend of urban populations in first-tier cities returning home to watch movies during the Spring Festival may continue. It is expected that in conservative/neutral/optimistic scenarios, the box office revenue for the 2026 Spring Festival season would be approximately 6.5/7.5/8.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of about -32%/-21%/-10%. Regarding targets: Positive outlook for MAOYAN ENT (01896) (ticketing leader, main distributor of "Speed Life 3" "Panda Plan: Tribe Adventure"), DAMAI ENT (01060) (main investor in "Silent Spring" "Bodyguard: Winds of the Desert"), Wanda Film Holding (002739.SZ) (cinema giant, participant in multiple films). Recommend keeping an eye on China Film Group (600977.SH), Shanghai Film (601595.SH), Hengdian Entertainment (603103.SH), and others. Risk factors: Quality of films not meeting expectations, piracy, public relations risks, tightening regulations.