New Stock Preview | From "Deep Squatting" in Performance to Global Leapfrogging: Decoding the Breakthrough Logic of Sirio Pharma (300791.SZ)

As the Chinese health product industry transitions from rapid growth to structural adjustment, every enterprise in the industry chain is seeking its own survival and development path. As one of the top three global leaders and the number one in China in the nutrition and health food solution industry, Sirio Pharma (300791.SZ) made a series of moves at the beginning of 2026 that undoubtedly dropped a bomb on the industry during this transitional period. On one hand, there is a "cliff" in performance with a projected 53% to 69% drop in net profit in 2025, and on the other hand, there is a capital move of formally submitting an application for the main board listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Sirio Pharma seems to be seeking a breakthrough between business contraction and global expansion in a near "dismemberment" style. Behind the deteriorating financial indicators: the burden of operation has been removed, and the company is ready for battle. According to Zhushi Consulting data, based on revenue from 2024, Sirio Pharma ranks among the top three globally and number one in China in the nutrition and health food solution industry. This industry-leading position not only provides strong support for its overseas listing, but also gives it stronger bargaining power and risk resistance in the context of global supply chain restructuring. In terms of financial performance, from 2023 to 2024, the company's revenue increased from 3.582 billion yuan to 4.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, showing a strong growth trend. Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was 3.291 billion yuan, an increase of 7.96% from the same period in 2024, with a significant slowdown in growth. In terms of regional income structure (around 38.8% from China, 39.2% from the Americas, and 17% from Europe), while the diversified layout provides risk diversification, major markets may simultaneously face growth bottlenecks. The Americas, as the largest source of revenue, is significantly affected by US-China trade frictions; the European market is constrained by economic slowdown; and the Chinese domestic market is facing pressure from the adjustment of the health product industry. Furthermore, the company's gross profit margin performance is relatively stable. The gross profit margin was 29.65% in 2023, increased to 30.61% in 2024, showing effective product structure optimization or cost control. The gross profit margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 31.48%, showing a continuing improvement trend, indicating that the core business is still competitive. However, the company's net profit plummeted. Net profit was 240 million yuan in 2023, increased to 282 million yuan in 2024, but net profit for the first nine months of 2025 was only 55.535 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year decline. It is worth noting that Sirio Pharma's expenses rate significantly increased. For the first nine months of 2025, the company's sales expenses rate was 8.30%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from the same period in 2024. Administrative expenses were 3.556 billion yuan, with an expenses rate of 10.81%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points from the same period in 2024. The rise in sales and administrative expenses rates reflects increased market expansion costs and decreased operational efficiency. Additionally, in the context of slowing revenue growth, rigid expense growth directly erodes profit margins. Even worse, the scale of the company's asset impairment is shocking. In 2025, it recognized an impairment loss of 210 million yuan for assets classified as held for sale, which exceeded nearly four times the total net profit for the first nine months. The company chose to make a one-time provision for a large impairment rather than gradually digesting it, demonstrating a determined approach to "cutting off" assets. This accounting treatment may result in unsightly performance for the current period, but it is beneficial for thoroughly eliminating future performance risks; improving asset quality, enhancing the ROA index; and focusing resources on developing core businesses. Pushing for an H-share listing at a time of significantly declining performance, the decision behind Sirio Pharma's move involves multiple considerations: first, the capital needs during the industry adjustment period. The health product industry is currently in a crucial transition period, and research and development investments, capacity upgrades, and market expansion all require significant financial support. By financing through an H-share listing, the company can provide sufficient "ammunition" for its transformation. Second, the funding needs for global expansion. Sirio Pharma has already purchased industrial land in Chumphon Province, Thailand, with plans to build an overseas production base. This global capacity layout requires significant financial support, and fundraising from H-share listing will be an important source of funds. Third, the construction of a diversified capital platform. The dual listing structure of A+H shares can not only enhance the company's international visibility but also broaden financing channels, optimize shareholding structure, and facilitate future mergers and acquisitions. Transitioning from a Chinese leader to a global leader The global nutrition and health food solutions industry is in a golden period of simultaneous volume and price growth. According to industry data, the global market size reached 29.4 billion USD in 2024 and is expected to grow to 42.4 billion USD by 2029 at a compound annual growth rate of 7.6%. This growth is driven by the resonance of multiple structural trends: The current industry CR5 is only 10.5%, showing a highly fragmented pattern. This provides natural integration space for leading companies with scalability and specialization capabilities. At the same time, the health product industry is evolving from "brand-led" to specialized division of labor in "research + development + manufacturing + brand," and the penetration rate of CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organization) model continues to rise. As a provider of comprehensive solutions covering all dosage forms, Sirio Pharma is at the core of this trend. Innovative dosage forms such as gummies and soft capsules are growing faster than the industry average by 2-3 percentage points, becoming key engines for value growth. Sirio Pharma has already established significant advantages in these two high-growth tracks: it ranks second in the global soft capsule market with a 6% market share and second in the global gummy market with a 3.6% share. This expertise in dosage form specialization forms the company's first line of defense. It is worth noting that the company has built a global manufacturing network covering "China (three major bases) + Europe (Germany) + North America (United States) + Southeast Asia (Thailand under construction)". The investment in the Thai base is 109 million yuan, with planned capacity of 2.4 billion gummies per year. Productions are expected to commence in 2027 to become a strategic hub serving the Asia-Pacific market with a population of 1 billion. In terms of capacity allocation, the Chinese base serves the local market and some exports, the European base covers the EMEA market, the US base serves North America, and the Thai base focuses on emerging markets in Asia-Pacific. Third-quarter 2025 data shows that Sirio Pharma's transformation in the Chinese region has entered a harvest period. New consumption channels contribute more than 50%, with social e-commerce (MCN), private domain operation, cross-border e-commerce, and new retail becoming the main growth engines. MCN/private domain customer growth exceeded 60% year-on-year, reflecting the company's rapid adaptation to new traffic formats. The successful verification of explosive product matrices has led to a revenue growth of over 60% for product combinations targeting specific groups such as young women. In summary, Sirio Pharma is at a critical turning point: exchanging short-term financial pains for long-term structural optimization. By divesting non-core assets, focusing on the nutrition and health main business, and accelerating H-share listing and global manufacturing layout, the company exhibits clear strategic determination. Despite facing multiple challenges such as industry adjustments, high expenses, and overseas operations, its leadership position in comprehensive dosage form R&D, soft capsules, and gummies, as well as its rapid response to localized market strategies, have won it a differentiated competitive edge. The future success of Sirio Pharma in transitioning from "number one in China" to "global number one" depends not only on the efficiency of capital operations and capacity deployment but also on its ability to continually strengthen product innovation and global supply chain coordination in an ever-changing market environment.