Xiangcai Securities: Tungsten prices continue to rise strongly in January, and the tight supply at the mining end is difficult to change in the short term.

Xiangcai Securities released a research report stating that the long-term tungsten supply side constraints are becoming stronger; in the global tungsten competitive landscape, China's tungsten industry occupies a leading position in global reserves and production, with a high concentration in the domestic tungsten concentrate industry. As small mines gradually decrease, resources further concentrate towards large enterprises, the share of China's tungsten industry continues to rise in global tungsten supply. On the demand side, global tungsten demand is expected to show a continuous growth trend, including high value-added areas such as AIPCB precision cutting tools, photovoltaic tungsten wire, and the military aerospace field. With supply restrictions combined with structural adjustments in demand, the tungsten price center is expected to rise in the long term. In the short term, the pre-holiday operating rates of some mines are expected to seasonally decline, coupled with current low inventory support, the tight supply situation at the mine end will continue to strengthen, and tungsten concentrate prices are expected to remain strong and transmit downstream with essential support. Considering the recent rapid increase in sector valuations to elevated levels, sector stock prices largely reflect optimistic expectations driven by the rise in tungsten prices. The bank has adjusted its industry rating from "Buy" to "Hold". Main points from Xiangcai Securities: The tungsten industry market has shown strong performance this month, with a significant increase in valuation. According to Wind data, the tungsten industry accumulated a significant increase of 60.78% this month, far outpacing the benchmark (CSI 300) by 58.11%. The industry valuation (PE TTM) rose from 37.25x at the beginning of the month to 57.61x currently, reaching 93.57% of its historical percentile. This month, domestic tungsten industry chain prices have seen a strong upward trend driven by the resource side, continuously reaching historical highs, with international tungsten prices rising in sync. In January, domestic tungsten product prices continued to rise strongly to historical highs. In terms of minerals, market raw material supply tightened during the month, combined with a rise in long-term pricing, supporting ongoing high mineral prices. According to Wind data, in January 2026, the average price of domestic 65% black tungsten concentrate rose by 26.69% month-on-month to 51.06 million yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 254.75%, an increase of 72.05% compared to December 2025; the average price of domestic 65% white tungsten concentrate rose by 26.76% month-on-month to 50.87 million yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 256.66%, an increase of 71.88% compared to December 2025. In the midstream smelting side, the tense situation of concentrate intensified. Ammonium paratungstate... The rest of the text was truncated.