A shares midday review | Peripheral sudden transmission of major changes, bull and bear battle at 4100 points! Agricultural stocks strengthen against the trend

On January 30th, the A-share market in the morning showed differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4100 points at one point, the ChiNext Index experiencing a V-shaped rebound, and a half-day trading volume of 1.93 trillion, a decrease of 83.6 billion compared to the previous trading day. By midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.96%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.8%. Of note, according to Securities China, from the virtual currency market to commodities, from US stock futures to the Asia-Pacific markets, there was a widespread sell-off. On the news front, major changes were reported in the global market: First, on January 29th, US President Trump stated that he plans to engage in talks with Iran and said he "hopes" not to use force. This move may reduce the drive for the increase in crude oil and international gold prices. Second, the US dollar index surged. Third, the appointment of the Federal Reserve chairman may be announced tonight Beijing time, adding to market uncertainty and apprehension. In the market, the precious metals and non-ferrous sectors collectively fell, triggering limit down, with multiple stocks like Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd. hitting limit down. The photovoltaic, defense, oil and gas, and real estate sectors led the decliners. In the midst of the market decline, agricultural stocks rose against the trend, with China Agriculture Development Seed Group hitting the limit up twice in three days; consumer stocks remained active, with tourism, retail, and entertainment sectors leading the gains, such as Maoye Commercial and Hengdian Entertainment hitting the limit up; the coal sector rose, with Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal hitting the limit up; and the computing power hardware sector rebounded, with Suzhou TFC Optical Communication hitting a historical high. Looking ahead, Guosen believes that as the end of January approaches, the disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts will intensify. The market focus will be on earnings. Popular Sectors: 1. Precious Metals Concept triggering limit down Companies like Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd., Baiyin Nonferrous Group, Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead, Zhaojin International Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Hunan Silver all hit limit down. Analysis: Globally, there was a seismic shift, causing precious metals to plummet. Silver fell by over 8%, and gold experienced its largest drop of $500. Analysts believe that the short-term dive in gold and silver was due to investors taking profits after prices surged. 2. Agricultural Sector Strength Agricultural concepts showed strength, with China Agriculture Development Seed Group hitting limit up twice in three days, and stocks like QIULE SEEDS, Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology, Heilongjiang Agriculture, and KANGNONG SEED following suit. Analysis: The benchmark price of soybeans on January 29th was 4468.00 yuan/ton, up 1.18% compared to the beginning of the month. Additionally, the Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhang Xingwang, stated that grain production reached 14298 billion catties, setting a new record high. 3. Coal Sector Strength The coal sector showed strength, with Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal hitting limit up, and stocks like Yunnan Coal & Energy, Sundiro Holding, Henan Dayou Energy, and Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power also rising. Analysis: Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal announced a forecast, expecting a 205.30% to 264.83% increase in net profit by 2025. A CITIC Securities report suggested that in 2026, the coal industry may continue to have weak supply and demand, but under policy support, coal prices may perform better than in 2025. The profitability and dividend expectations of listed companies are also expected to improve, advising continued focus on industry leaders, companies with alpha capabilities, and potential performers with substantial earnings flexibility. Institutional Views: 1. Guosen: Market focus on earnings Guosen believes that as the end of January approaches, the disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts will intensify, with the market focus shifting towards earnings. Based on disclosures, the median year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in China reached double digits in 2025, with industries such as computing and communications, lithium batteries, and energy storage seeing significant performance improvements. Overall, during the critical period of earnings verification, combined with the high prosperity and performance flexibility of growth sectors, companies with solid fundamentals and performance exceeding expectations are likely to achieve excess returns, becoming the core focus of the upcoming "spring fever" market trend. 2. Zheshang: Short-term market volatility Zheshang believes that the "spring fever" phenomenon, as a seasonal effect, is catalyzed mainly by strong policy expectations at the beginning of the year, liquidity injections by the central bank, a vacuum period of economic data and corporate earnings reports, among other factors. From the perspective of domestic liquidity, to protect the cash injection needs of commercial banks around the Chinese New Year, the central bank typically implements loose monetary policies such as reserve cuts or interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. In terms of allocation, the market under cooling conditions may mainly experience short-term fluctuations and downward waves, with the potential for a slow-bull market in the quarter. In terms of industries, as A-share companies enter the earnings verification window in late January, the market style may shift to a focus on both performance and resilience in the "two-electricity and non-machine" sector, and small and medium growth stocks. 3. Orient: Stock market continues to maintain a volatile pattern Orient believes that in the short term, the stock market will continue to maintain a volatile pattern, with industry prosperity driving structural rallies, occasional bursts in cyclical sectors, and active funds choosing directions based on earnings flexibility or policy support. The stock indexes currently lack a clear direction choice. However, it is worth noting that there is a certain divergence in the precious metals sector, and investors need to be cautious of potential wide-ranging fluctuations in the future.