Guotai Haitong: Policy and pricing double catalyze the valuation repair of liquor, recommending price elastic stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH).

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the liquor industry had entered a period of deep adjustment, with recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors related to liquor. The market-driven transformation of Maotai has stimulated incremental demand and price increases, leading to a valuation recovery catalyzed by multiple factors. Recently, there have been positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors related to the liquor industry, recommending price-responsive stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ). Key points from Guotai Haitong: Real estate industry heating up, policies trending positively Liquor is a typical cyclical industry, and its pricing in the market is not only based on its fundamentals, but also on two important external factors - domestic demand and real estate market conditions. The company has seen the government placing boosting domestic demand as a top priority during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan", with various departments making frequent statements and high levels of coordination. The National Development and Reform Commission stated on January 20 that they will research and formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand for the years 2026-2030, providing a clear timeline for policies. At the same time, after years of adjustments, the real estate market has gradually bottomed out. On January 2, Qiushi published "Improving and Stabilizing the Expectations of the Real Estate Market", acknowledging the significant financial asset attributes of real estate, and proposing measures to strengthen macro-control of the real estate market to improve and stabilize expectations and minimize market fluctuations. Several actions indicate positive changes in domestic demand and real estate, which is a significant positive for the liquor industry. Maotai's market-oriented reform stimulates incremental demand, closely monitoring liquor sales during the Chinese New Year In December 2025, Maotai officially proposed a market-oriented transformation at a dealer gathering, adjusting and improving product structure, pricing system, distribution network, and consumer services, and launching multiple products including PuFei on the iMaotai platform in early 2026. According to the company's observation, after the price structure of Maotai was adjusted, the integration of channels significantly improved, with a rush to buy online on iMaotai, offline dealers shipping even faster than in previous years, and stable wholesale prices. Recently, with the increase in demand for holiday gifts and consumption, PuFei has started to increase prices, with wholesale prices rising by over 1600 yuan on January 29 and transaction prices exceeding 1700 yuan, achieving results in terms of price for volume. Currently, the liquor "opening red" is in progress, with most channels showing average enthusiasm for payments, and the peak sales period is expected to arrive in February. If the demand for core high-end products, including PuFei, continues to be released, it is expected to support price stability. Cyclical bottoming out, improved liquidity, expected recovery to catalyze liquor stocks Since the third quarter of 2025, liquor inventories have been significantly cleared, and the company believes that the industry is already at the bottom of the cycle. Looking ahead to 2026, the recovery of business sentiment and inventory clearance will take time. It is expected that liquor companies will maintain channel resilience through price-for-volume or control strategies. Recently, liquor stock prices have been under pressure, with the company attributing this to weaker overall sales and liquidity pressure in the sector in the latter half of January. Standing at the bottom, if wholesale prices stabilize in the future, the company believes that the downward pressure on stock prices will alleviate, and if more positive signals are released at the policy level, it could further catalyze stock prices. Risk warning: significant decline in wholesale prices, long-term impact of alcohol consumption policies, food safety risks.