Guosen: Overseas cloud giants raise prices, pay attention to the cycle of computing power price increases

Guosen released a research report stating that Google Cloud and Amazon have successively raised prices for data transmission and computing power services, and the rental cost of AI computing power infrastructure has also increased month-on-month. Driven by technologies such as Agent applications, CPU demand and prices have grown in sync. At the same time, there has been an explosive growth in the demand for optical modules, with a shortage of 25%-30% in core components like optical chips, driving the prices of optical fibers and optical chips upwards and resulting in a structural increase in the overall cost of the AI industry chain. Key points from Guosen's report are as follows: Google Cloud has raised global data transmission service prices On January 27th, Google Cloud announced that it will officially raise global data transmission service prices starting from May 1, 2026, including internet transmission (CDNInterconnect), direct peering (Direct Peering), carrier peering (Carrier Peering), etc., with rates in North America doubling. Amazon has raised prices for machine learning EC2 capacity block instances. In January 2026, in most regions, the price of the p5e.48xlarge instance has been raised from $34.61 per hour to $39.80 per hour, an increase of approximately 15%. Expansion of computing power infrastructure, continuous increase in AIDC leasing prices According to Equinix's financial disclosure data, the MRRPer Cab (monthly lease price per cabinet) growth rate has increased compared to the previous quarters, with growth rates of -0.8%, 2.9%, and 2.5% in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025. Agent driving CPU demand growth, leading to CPU price hikes Nonlinear control logic, intensive system calls and I/O loads, system coordination and synchronization require CPU involvement; in addition, sandbox systems also require CPU support. According to data disclosed by Pcpartpicker, prices for Intel Core i7 Alder Lake model CPUs have risen significantly since January 2026. AI reshaping fiber optic demand structure, trend of price increases formed After experiencing destocking cycles in 2023-2024 and the withdrawal of Richcom, the supply-demand relationship in the domestic fiber optic industry gradually recovered in 2025, with demand-side warming driving capacity utilization rate increases. The average price of G652D has risen for two consecutive quarters, indicating a noticeable upward trend in prices. Explosive demand for optical modules, upstream materials may face shortages According to Lightcounting's forecasts, the global market size for optical modules is expected to maintain a 22% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, with a possibility of surpassing $37 billion in 2029. Optical components (including optical chips and optical element components) account for over 70% of the cost of optical modules. Lumentum publicly stated during its third quarter financial conference call in 2025 that the shortage of optical chips has increased to 25%-30%, and prices are expected to rise in 2026. Risk warnings: risks of internet giants' capital expenditures falling short of expectations; declining ROI for internet giants leading to decreased demand for related hardware purchases; risks of slower-than-expected growth in active users of AI applications, etc.