CITIC SEC: Review of New Energy Vehicles Exploiting Humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that currently humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation is in the technical validation phase, but the commercialization timeline will be shortened compared to new energy vehicles. It is recommended to focus on the most valuable, clear and certain segments in the Siasun Robot & Automation industry, as they have the greatest performance flexibility. Additionally, CITIC SEC believes that leaders are the core in the stage of industry trend investment, so CITIC SEC recommends actively seeking leading companies in the non-standard, technology, cost, and high barriers to entry segments of the Siasun Robot & Automation industry, as these companies can withstand industry cycles. Overall, CITIC SEC believes that Siasun Robot & Automation company itself (an integrated platform enterprise), high computational power SOC chips (brain-side drivers), dexterous hands (small Siasun Robot & Automation with integrated software and hardware), actuators, and precision sensors (integrated software and hardware) are high-value, high-barrier segments of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry. CITIC SEC's main points are as follows: Comparatively speaking, Siasun Robot & Automation is highly comparable to new energy vehicles, but there are differences in dimensions such as technology and scenarios. Both the new energy vehicle and Siasun Robot & Automation industries are strategic industries globally. We believe that Siasun Robot & Automation is highly comparable to new energy vehicles, as both were initiated by Tesla, starting a wave of technology mass production, and following the industry rules of technology validation + capital assistance + policy drive + market drive from B to C. At the same time, the supply chain, capital/policy drive mode are highly similar. However, Siasun Robot & Automation has higher complexity in intelligence and more fragmented scenarios, and the industry development still has uncertainties. Policy promotion, technological innovation, and leading companies in the supply chain are the core three elements influencing the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Policies regarding new energy vehicles primarily subsidize passenger and commercial vehicles since subsidies for operating vehicles are easier in terms of cost, technology, and policy drive, and they can have a greater policy impact, driving the development of the industry chain technologies and further promoting the development of passenger vehicles. From this perspective, we believe that the application of Siasun Robot & Automation should also follow the idea of "planning before the market." In terms of technological innovation, currently, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation is in the technical validation stage, on the brink of commercialization. Tesla, for example, took 5 years from its establishment in 2003 to the mass production delivery of its first electric car, the Roadster in 2008, for technical validation. Then in 2012, it formally delivered its first conventional commercial model, Model S, after nearly 10 years. From Tesla's initial proposal of the Tesla Bot concept in 2021 to the expected start of mass production in the first quarter of 2026, it has also gone through a 5-year period of technical validation. However, considering that Tesla had only a few hundred million dollars in available funds and fewer resources in terms of talent and technology in its early days, while Tesla's current capital expenditure has reached the billion-dollar level and has accumulated various resources, we believe that the time period for humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation from technical validation to simple small-scale commercialization and then to complex large-scale commercialization will be shorter compared to Tesla's new energy vehicles. In terms of leading the supply chain, we believe that in the field of Siasun Robot & Automation, Tesla more fully represents the development progress of embodied intelligent technology industries. However, the Siasun Robot & Automation industry players are collectively conducting technology validation, and the commercialization of the industry is near. New energy vehicles have experienced four market cycles under the influence of macro, policy, technology, and leading companies. Reviewing the evolutionary stages of the automotive industry in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation, the development of the entire industry DRIVE: starting from the "single policy-driven" stage, gradually transitioning to the "policy + market" dual-driven stage, and finally moving towards the mature stage led by technology and demand. The development of the market has shifted from concept themes to weight-driving themes. Global investments in the new energy vehicle industry have also gone through four major market cycles, resonating with global macro market environment, new energy industry policy cycles, technology cycles, and leading companies in the supply chain. In the A-share market of new energy vehicles, under the triple effect of policy drive, technological innovation, and leading companies in the supply chain, from 2009 to 2022, it has also experienced four major market cycles. Starting with the first round: themed trading (January 2009-November 2010), to the second round: themed trading (December 2012-August 2014), then to the third round: theme + performance drive (July 2015-June 2016), and finally the fourth round: industrial trend + performance realization (November 2019-October 2021). During the period of 2010-2018, although the sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, there were large fluctuations in the market, primarily due to the industry not crossing the critical point of "policy-technology-profit". The core reason is the industry's early dependence on policies and technology, while the profitability of related companies was fragile, with low penetration rates. The market was mainly driven by themed speculation, resulting in sharp rises followed by significant declines. After 2019, the industry reached the resonant turning point of "policy-technology-market-profit", pushing the industry into a growth stage driven by fundamentals, only then embarking on a sustainable long-term market driven by fundamentals. The closer the market is to the turning point of the industry, the more leading the rise of weight and leading companies. Currently, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation is in the technical validation phase and remains a thematic investment. Segments with the highest value, clearest structure, and the highest certainty have the greatest performance flexibility. Through a review of the market trends in the new energy vehicle industry and the historical performance of companies, it is observed that there are significant fluctuations in cyclical material performance. Companies with high barriers to entry in non-standard, technology, cost, and production expansion can withstand cycles. Therefore, it is recommended to actively seek out leading companies in the sub-segments of Siasun Robot & Automation that have high barriers to entry in terms of non-standard, technology, cost, and production expansion. The supply chain of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry mainly consists of automotive component suppliers, mechanical and electronic field suppliers, with relatively fewer material suppliers. Its positioning is more similar to the entire vehicle factory, motor control, intelligent cabins, thermal management, and components in the new energy vehicle industry. We anticipate that their performance will steadily follow the shipping growth of the Siasun Robot & Automation industry, and it is less likely to experience significant performance fluctuations like the cyclical materials in the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry. We calculate that although the cost of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation rotator + linear actuator accounts for over 30%, similar to new energy vehicle batteries, adding dexterous hand actuators will increase the cost proportion to over 45%. However, since the industry is still at the stage of going from 0 to 1, and the technology paths have not yet converged, there are currently no enterprises in the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry similar to Contemporary Amperex Technology, which is highly competitive in the lithium battery field. Overall, we believe that Siasun Robot & Automation company itself (an integrated platform enterprise), high computational power SOC chips (brain-side drivers), dexterous hands (small Siasun Robot & Automation with integrated software and hardware), actuators, and precision sensors (integrated software and hardware) are high-value, high-barrier segments of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry. Risk factors: Slower-than-expected technological progress for Siasun Robot & Automation; Lower-than-expected development potential for Siasun Robot & Automation applications; Risks of changes in technological routes; Implementation of policies falling short of expectations; Risks of increased industry competition; Risks of unexpected changes in laws and regulations; International geopolitical risks. Investment strategy: Siasun Robot & Automation, especially the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry, belongs to a strategic global industry with a huge market size. It is mainly aimed at solving labor shortages, rising labor costs, upgrading manufacturing industries, and aging populations. It is a new economic driving force, a technological high point, meeting social and national defense needs. Therefore, China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other countries/regions have introduced different policy tools to promote the development of their Siasun Robot & Automation industries. We recommend focusing on the segments in the Siasun Robot & Automation industry that have the highest value, clearest structure, and highest certainty. Overall, we believe that Siasun Robot & Automation company itself (an integrated platform enterprise), high computational power SOC chips (brain-side drivers), dexterous hands (small Siasun Robot & Automation with integrated software and hardware), actuators, and precision sensors (integrated software and hardware) are high-value, high-barrier segments of the humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation industry. We also believe that leaders are crucial in the investment stage of industry trends, so we suggest actively seeking leading companies in the Siasun Robot & Automation industry that have high barriers to entry in non-standard, technology, cost, and production expansion, as these companies can withstand industry cycles.