New stock forecast | "AI + City-level Holographic Road Network" leader Tuo Bi Da: unstable profitability, high customer concentration.

Since 2025, the development of AI has been rapid, and applications have been flowing in like a tide, accelerating the digital and intelligent transformation in the fields of manufacturing, services, urban governance, and transportation. As a pioneer in the field of AI intelligent traffic, Tuo Bida is planning to go public in Hong Kong or is being highly focused on by the market. Recently, Tuo Bida has submitted an application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Tai Securities as its exclusive sponsor. The company is an intelligent traffic supplier, with its core business focusing on the traffic sector. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the company is one of the participants in one of China's first large-scale traffic congestion management projects and is also one of the leaders in using AI to achieve city-level holographic road networks. The company's performance has shown volatility. In the first three quarters of 2024 and 2025, the revenue grew by -34% and 184.2% respectively. This fluctuation is primarily due to the company's project acceptance and transfer cycle. In addition, the company's profit fluctuation is also very significant. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit margin was 16.2%, a decrease of 15.12 percentage points year-on-year, compared to 24.5% and 31.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively. As of November 2025, Tuo Bida had cash and cash equivalents of only 25 million yuan, and it is worth noting that in 2023 and 2024, its cash and cash equivalents were only 5.073 million yuan and 5.206 million yuan respectively. The company has little cash flow, so this listing may be to supplement working capital. Diversified driving performance acceleration, but high customer concentration Founded in 2013, Tuo Bida focuses on the field of intelligent traffic. In 2014, it launched its first generation of intelligent traffic solutions, achieving small-scale implementation. In 2018, it became a Tencent standard-level industry partner, introducing edge computing prototypes to solve front-end cloud data transmission bottlenecks. In 2024, it implemented AI traffic system solutions in multiple traffic management projects, and in 2025, it released its first liquid-cooled server, introduced drone technology, and deployed drone charging stations and drone command and dispatch platforms. The company focuses on two major scenarios: traffic and urban management, providing intelligent solutions, maintenance services, and ICT-related solution services. Traffic is the core application scenario, and intelligent solutions are the core business. From 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue share of this scenario was 90.6%, 74.6%, and 79.1% respectively, with the revenue share of intelligent traffic solution services being 74.7%, 42.7%, and 74.01% respectively. Tuo Bida's revenue showed significant fluctuations in 2024 and 2025. The revenue decrease in 2024 was mainly due to a reduction in intelligent traffic solution projects reaching the formal acceptance stage, while the revenue surge in 2025 was due to the completion of a project for a large customer. In addition, the revenue performance of intelligent solution services in the urban management scenario is more prominent, with the revenue share increasing from 0.7% in 2023 to 10.9% in the first three quarters of 2025. The company's customers mainly include China Telecom Corporation, local government agencies, and private companies. The number of projects in 2025 grew rapidly, with a total of 128 projects as of January 16, 2026, an increase of 36 from 2023. As of the final feasible date, the balance of unfinished projects was approximately 279 million yuan. It is worth noting that the company's customer concentration is high, with the top five customers contributing more than 90% of previous revenue records. In the first three quarters of 2025, the contribution was 94.4%, with the largest customer contributing 73.8% of revenue. However, the company has established business relationships with the top five customers over an average of about five years, ensuring a high level of income security. Tuo Bida attaches importance to research and development. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's research and development expense ratio was 3.1%. As of the feasible date, the research and development team consists of 38 members, accounting for over thirty percent. The company's research projects mainly include integrated earth applications, including drone command and control platforms and intelligent drone charging stations, as well as large-scale application platforms. The large-scale application platform is based on the independently developed LLM fine-tuning algorithm, deep fusion knowledge graph retrieval-enhanced generation technology, and multimodal semantic comprehension capability construction. By using IoT, big data, and AI technology, the company uses a proprietary four-layer modular architecture including intelligent perception layer, universal digital governance layer, general AI intelligent layer, and full-scenario application layer to establish its own system. AI is accelerating its penetration in the field of transportation, driving the rapid development of intelligent solutions business, and the company has stable cooperation relationships with its top five customers. Its intelligent traffic perception system and cloud-edge intelligent traffic system have a leading position in the industry and may attract more customers to sign contracts. The company's urban management scenario is gaining momentum and is expected to become a new growth curve, achieving a multi-scenario driven mode. The AI-driven industry maintains high growth, and listing may accelerate market expansion From an industry perspective, according to Frost & Sullivan, the deep integration of IoT, big data, and AI is driving a revolutionary digital and intelligent transformation in the transportation sector, optimizing urban traffic governance, improving transportation efficiency, and enhancing overall travel experiences, thus driving the rapid development of intelligent traffic systems. In 2024, the market size of the CHINA ITS system was 274.1 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.7% in the past five years, and is expected to reach 687.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.6%. Guangdong province, as a leader in the application of intelligent traffic AI, had a market size of 33.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5% in the past five years, representing 12.15% of the national total. In addition, AI is also accelerating the high growth of the holographic road solution market. In 2024, the market size was 3.3 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 47.4% in the past five years, and is expected to reach 22.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.9%. Tuo Bida is one of the leaders in China to apply AI to achieve city-level holographic road network solutions. It has successfully developed a holographic road network platform covering 300 kilometers of urban roads and 140 intersections, and has built a comprehensive traffic governance system covering the entire chain of "perception-analysis-decision-execution." Currently, the holographic road network solution market is in its early stages, and the company's early layout may be the first to benefit from industry growth dividends. However, as mentioned earlier, the company lacks cash flow support. On one hand, profitability is weakening, with a downward trend in gross profit margin, which was 26.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 26.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease in gross profit margin of intelligent traffic solution scenarios. On the other hand, operating cash flow is unstable, with net outflows in both 2023 and 2024, but a net inflow in 2025, mainly due to a decrease in contract liabilities or completion of projects. Expanding into the market and developing products both require cash flow, and the company is currently limited by its small asset size and unstable cash flow. This listing may help the company solve its current development dilemmas and provide a cushion of ample funds. In conclusion, Tuo Bida is one of the pioneers in the application of AI in the field of traffic, and is in a leading position in holographic road network solutions. Benefiting from the industry's development dividends, the company's intelligent solutions business is strategically expanding into multiple scenarios, with a clear strategy for driving performance growth. Additionally, although the company's customer dependency is high, long-term stable relationships provide security for performance growth, and as the market continues to penetrate, it will explore more customers to diversify concentration risks. However, the company's profitability and cash flow are both unstable, which may hinder the implementation of its business development strategy. It is necessary to monitor the continuous improvement of these two indicators.