Trump pressures Russia, oil prices briefly rise above 70, marking the largest weekly increase since the conflict with Iran.

With the escalation of geopolitical pressure, international oil prices recorded the largest weekly increase in over three months, with Brent crude oil briefly breaking through the key psychological level of $70. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump met with Turkish President Erdogan at the White House on the 25th and told reporters at the start of the meeting, "I hope he (Erdogan) stops buying oil from Russia." Earlier in the week, he also accused NATO member countries of buying Russian fuel. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also stated on the same day that the current gasoline export ban will be extended until the end of the year, and on the basis of diesel export restrictions, restrictions on non-producers exporting diesel will be increased. Trump's pressure has raised concerns in the crude oil market, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data and a weaker U.S. dollar on Friday, pushing up oil prices. On Friday, Brent crude oil closed above $70 per barrel, the first time since the end of July, recording a 5.2% increase for the week, with WTI crude oil closing near $66 per barrel. At the same time, traders' entry amplified the upward trend. Data shows that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) have switched to net long positions for the first time since early August, indicating a critical shift in market technicals. Geopolitical tensions fuel oil price gains In addition to Trump directly pressuring buyers of Russian oil, Ukraine has also intensified drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, directly threatening its supply capabilities. According to media reports citing informed sources, European diplomats this week warned the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond decisively to any further violations of its airspace, including shooting down Russian planes. Furthermore, reports indicate that the United Nations will re-impose broad sanctions on Iran after U.S. diplomatic efforts failed to ease the deadlock over the Iranian nuclear program, which could further tighten global crude oil supplies. Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and oil market researcher, stated: "The current short market poses a great risk, and the speculative short positions accumulated in the entire oil market are still high, which further increases the risk." Technical buying increases the upward trend Market tension is also reflected at the trading level. According to data from Bridgeton Research Group, commodity trading advisors (CTAs) inclined to amplify price fluctuations turned net long on Friday for the first time since early August. The data shows that traders' positions on Brent crude oil switched from 27% net short the previous day to 27% net long, while positions on U.S. WTI crude oil remained neutral. Strong U.S. PCE inflation data on Friday provided additional support for oil prices, easing concerns about short-term demand deterioration. Meanwhile, a weaker U.S. dollar made commodities priced in dollars more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. Complex supply prospects, multiple factors intertwine bullish and bearish factors Despite geopolitical risks pushing up oil prices, the outlook for market supply remains complex. Forecasting organizations, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), expect oversupply later this year due to increased production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil-producing countries (especially in the Americas). Currently, the market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a new round of production increases in November in an effort to regain global market share. Kim Fustier, senior oil and gas analyst at HSBC Plc, said: "The organization has accepted a market share strategy. We are skeptical as to whether they will retreat significantly as a result of a sharp drop in oil prices." According to reports citing informed sources, Saudi Arabia hopes to compensate for potential revenue losses from falling oil prices by increasing sales volumes and regaining market share seized by competitors like U.S. shale oil in recent years. This move is also seen as an attempt to prove to the market that the idle production capacity of other OPEC+ member countries is much lower than widely expected. In addition, a significant amount of new supply is set to enter the market. It was reported that Kurdish crude oil exported via Turkey's Ceyhan port, after being interrupted for over two years, will resume transportation on Saturday. Initial resumption quantity is 230,000 barrels per day, which may increase to 500,000 barrels per day in the future. However, the market's response to this news has been muted, as traders speculate that most of the previously shut-in oil has already been redirected to domestic consumption or exported to neighboring countries. This article is selected from "Wall Street See News", authored by ;GMTEight, edited by Heyucheng.