Downgrade three times within two weeks! The political deadlock in France exacerbates the debt crisis.

date
27/09/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
European rating agency Scope Ratings announced on Friday that it has downgraded the outlook for France's sovereign credit rating to negative.
European credit rating agency Scope Ratings announced on Friday that it has downgraded the outlook for France's sovereign credit rating to negative, but maintained its "AA-" rating. This is the third rating blow that France has received in two weeks, highlighting the deterioration of the country's credit under the dual pressure of political deadlock and financial difficulties. Scope stated in its announcement that the main reasons for lowering the outlook are France's "significantly weakened fiscal position" and "more complex political outlook." Earlier, international rating agencies Fitch and Canada's Dominion Bond Rating Service had consecutively downgraded France's rating, causing a series of negative impacts on the French financial market. French President Macron held early elections last year, leading to the ruling party losing its parliamentary majority, which paralyzed its plans to reduce the budget deficit. Earlier this month, the opposition forces united to force former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou to resign. Macron then appointed 39-year-old Sebastien Lecornu as the fifth prime minister in two years and asked him to reach a consensus on budget issues before forming a new government. However, Lecornu has not yet clearly stated what concessions he is willing to make on deficit reduction plans. The Socialist Party, which holds key seats in the opposition, demands a lower deficit reduction target than Bayrou's previous plan. Bayrou's plan aimed to reduce the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP from the expected 5.4% this year to 4.6% by 2026. In an interview on Friday, Lecornu stated that he would not propose an "austere budget," but plans to set the deficit target at around 4.7% in 2025 and emphasized the long-term goal of reducing the deficit to less than 3% by 2029. However, he added that the final decision still rests with the parliament. Calls against "austerity policies" are growing in France. National labor unions plan to launch a second round of large-scale protests and strikes on October 2, calling on the government to increase wealth taxes and social spending. This further complicates the difficulty for the Lecornu government to reach a budget consensus. Scope pointed out in its report, "Rising political instability, severe political divisions and polarization, and challenging socio-economic prospects make it difficult for all parties to reach broad political consensus to substantially reduce the deficit and stabilize debt as a percentage of GDP." The political chaos in France has caused significant volatility in financial markets, with French assets being sold off and the yield spread between French bonds and German bonds almost doubling since the last election. Uncertainty has also dampened investment and consumer confidence. Although the French economy exceeded expectations in the first half of this year, private sector activity in September fell to its lowest level in five years, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showing a significant weakening in economic momentum. Scope warned that without further fiscal reform measures, France's government debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 125% by 2030, making it one of the fastest-growing among countries of the same level. This trend not only threatens France's fiscal sustainability but could also trigger broader financial chain reactions within Europe.