U.S. consumer confidence index in September drops to lowest since May, long-term inflation expectations rise for second consecutive month.

Consumer confidence in the United States has fallen for the second consecutive month, as economic concerns continue to worsen. The latest data from the University of Michigan shows that the consumer confidence index in September dropped to 55.1, a decrease of 3.1 points from the previous month, a decrease of about 5%, lower than the market expectation of 55.4. This level is the lowest since May of this year, and a decrease of 21.4% compared to the same period last year. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is an important survey in the United States that measures the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and consumer willingness. It is released twice a month, with the preliminary value announced in the middle of the month, and the final value at the end of the month. The final value this time confirmed the weak performance of the preliminary value, indicating a widespread weakening of consumer sentiment. Joanne Hsu, head of the survey at the University of Michigan, stated that although the consumer confidence index in September rose slightly from the lows of April and May, it decreased by about 5% compared to the previous month, and the downward trend is generally present among different age, income, and education groups. It is worth noting that consumers with a large number of stock assets have maintained stable confidence, while the confidence of groups with few or no stock assets has significantly weakened. In terms of political stance, the confidence index of independent voters decreased by about 9%, Republicans by 4%, and Democrats slightly increased. Hsu pointed out that consumers are not only pessimistic about the macroeconomic outlook, especially employment and business conditions, but also hold a more cautious attitude towards their own income and financial prospects. 44% of the respondents in the survey spontaneously mentioned that high prices were eroding their personal finances, the highest percentage in the past year. In the long-term data, the level of 55.1 is lower than the level at the beginning of six economic recessions since the establishment of the index. The current consumer confidence is 34.6% lower than the arithmetic mean of 84.3 since 1978, and 33.7% lower than the geometric mean of 83.1, ranking in the 1st percentile among 573 months of historical data, highlighting extreme weakness. In September, the index of current economic conditions in the United States fell for the second consecutive month to 60.4, lower than the expected 61.2, the lowest since May. The index decreased by 2.1% from the previous month, and 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting consumers' continuously deteriorating views on current financial conditions and the economy. The consumer expectations index has also declined for the third consecutive month to 51.7, slightly below the expected 51.8, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous month, and a sharp drop of 30.5% year-on-year, showing that future expectations are deteriorating rapidly. In terms of inflation expectations, the one-year inflation expectation of American consumers fell slightly from 4.8% last month to 4.7%; the long-term inflation expectation continued to rise for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.7% in September, but still significantly lower than the high point of 4.4% in April. In addition to the survey results from the University of Michigan, the Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board in the United States is also weakening simultaneously. Both indexes reflect consumers' attitudes towards the current economic situation and future trends, but the former focuses more on household finances and inflation impacts, while the latter is more driven by changes in the job market. Furthermore, the confidence index of small business owners in the United States also shows a similar pessimistic sentiment, indicating pressure on both the consumption side and the small business side of the US economy.