Another major bank continues to be bullish! Deutsche Bank raises its gold price forecast to $4000.

Deutsche Bank believes that gold still has room for further increase, and the bank expects the average price of gold next year to reach $4,000 per ounce. Gold is currently in its strongest upward trend in decades, with a 40% increase so far this year. This rise is the most significant annualized increase since 1979, when global investors poured into the precious metals market due to concerns about inflation. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said, "Since the price of gold has reached our average forecast for 2026 - $3,700 per ounce, we believe there is a greater possibility of further increase compared to correction to its fair financial mechanism." Hsueh believes that the foreign exchange and interest rate environment still favors further increases in the price of gold, and that position indicators are not overly inflated. Hsueh said, "Although gold appears relatively expensive compared to fair value, we believe this is mainly due to strong official demand, and we expect this strong trend to continue." Unlike previous crises, the current demand seems to be driven by factors such as policy uncertainty in the United States government, concerns about the dollar, and geopolitical instability. Market volatility has been intense due to Trump's tariff policies and his repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve. In addition, geopolitical conflicts have also left the market in an unstable state. Investors of all kinds, from retirees to hedge funds, are flocking into the market. Hsueh believes that central bank buying behavior, especially from the Chinese central bank, has provided support for further increases in the market, at about twice the average size from 2011 to 2021. Deutsche Bank also expects the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to resume, with its economists suggesting a downward revision risk to the baseline forecast - the bank expects the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026 after three rate cuts in 2025. Analysts said, "The Fed's independence continues to face challenges, and changes in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee members have led to uncertainty as to how the Fed's reaction mechanism may be affected next year." Furthermore, the high-yield status of the US dollar is no longer present, prompting foreign investors to hedge against US assets. In addition to Deutsche Bank, other Wall Street giants have further raised their gold price forecasts after the recent record highs in gold prices. Previously, UBS raised its gold price forecast to reach $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, and $3,900 by mid-2026, citing expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve amid weak US labor data. Furthermore, JPMorgan Chase expects spot gold prices to surpass $4,000 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026. Goldman Sachs even made an aggressive prediction: if 1% of private sector US bond holdings were converted to gold, the price of gold could approach $5,000. Hsueh also pointed out some risk factors, including strong stock performance, restrictions on US labor supply due to immigration policies, and the impact of seasonal factors. Generally, the fourth quarter is a period when gold prices tend to be weaker. Another potential risk factor could be positive outcomes in US trade negotiations, reducing uncertainty for business investments. Deutsche Bank analysts also revised their silver price expectations from $40 per ounce to $45.