China–Serbia Convergence Signals a New “Silk Curtain” in Europe

Serbia has become a showcase for China’s European outreach. During Xi’s stop in Belgrade in May 2024, the two sides signed wide-ranging cooperation deals and confirmed that their free trade agreement would take effect on July 1, 2024, accelerating tariff cuts and formalizing a “community with a shared future.” The visit coincided with the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, underscoring a narrative of historical grievance and solidarity that now accompanies deepening commercial links.

The economic pillar is anchored in state-backed projects and acquisitions. China’s HBIS took over the Smederevo steel mill in 2016 and invested to modernize it, while the flagship Belgrade–Budapest railway long in the works, remains central to logistics ambitions even as the Serbian section has faced delays after a deadly station canopy collapse in Novi Sad. Together, these projects entrench Chinese capital and contractors in core Serbian infrastructure and industry.

Security and technology ties are broadening the relationship. Serbia’s “Safe City” surveillance rollout, built around Huawei systems and recently revealed expansion plans, has drawn scrutiny from rights groups and Western officials. Military cooperation has also advanced, with joint special forces exercises carried out in 2025 despite objections from the EU and the United States - evidence that the partnership now spans sensitive domains beyond trade and transport.

For Brussels, the trendline collides with accession logic. Serbia’s alignment with EU foreign and security policy has slipped to among the lowest in the Western Balkans, and EU leaders have prodded Belgrade to make a “strategic choice” between East and West. Against that backdrop, tighter China ties look less like hedging and more like a structural orientation, one that risks hardening into a “Silk Curtain” unless EU incentives and conditionality regain traction.