"British Statistics 'Great Revision': Economy's Post-Pandemic Recovery Stronger Than Expected"

According to the revised official statistics, the UK economy's recovery after the pandemic is stronger than previously thought. A report released by the UK's Office for National Statistics on Monday showed that new data combined updated methodologies and data sources. This data indicates that by the fourth quarter of 2023, the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 2.2% higher than at the end of 2019, rather than the previously estimated 1.9% increase. At the same time, the impact on the UK economy in the first year of the pandemic was also less severe than initially estimated, with an economic contraction of 10% instead of 10.3%. These data revisions suggest that the recovery in the standard of living for UK households is also happening at a faster pace. The UK's Office for National Statistics stated that by the end of 2023, real GDP per capita was 1% lower than before the pandemic, rather than the previously estimated 1.4% decrease. Weak household consumption and net trade estimates weighed on the UK economy in 2023. The actual GDP growth rate for 2023 was revised downward to 0.3%, from the previous estimate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the GDP growth rate for 2022 was revised upward to 5.1%, from 4.8%. The GDP growth rate for 2024 is currently forecast at 1.1%. These revisions cover data from 1997 to 2023, and will be published in the "Blue Book" at the end of September as core data. The estimates for 2023 were based on a supply and use framework for the first time, while the estimates for 2021 and 2022 were improved through updated data and sources. Revised survey data, as well as updates to the way the UK's Office for National Statistics measures the activities of large multinational pharmaceutical companies, show that research and development (R&D) as a percentage of the economy is higher than previously thought, which has a positive impact on GDP levels. Previously, from 2018 to 2022, the UK's R&D expenditure was considered relatively low compared to other developed economies. However, the UK's Office for National Statistics stated that the average R&D expenditure during this period is now believed to be higher than France and the Netherlands, but still lower than Germany, the United States, and Japan. Furthermore, separate revisions to trade data show that the total deficit in goods and services (including non-monetary gold) calculated in current prices expanded to 32.1 billion in 2023, which is 3 billion more than the latest quarterly national accounts estimate.