JP Morgan: Subsidy policy for consumer loans expected to have limited impact on domestic bank finances. Recommend China Merchants Bank(03968)

JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that the State Council announced policies on interest subsidies for personal consumer loans and loans for service industry operating entities. The government announced that it will provide interest subsidies for capital expenditures and operating funds loans for personal consumer loans and eight categories of operating entities. It is believed that this will help stimulate the demand for related loans, but it is expected to have limited financial impact on banks. According to the bank's calculation, if banks' consumer and eligible service industry loans increase by 10 percentage points, it will only bring about a 0.4% positive impact on full-year revenue in 2025. However, J.P. Morgan also pointed out that the policy signal is still positive and favorable for improving market sentiment. Among the bank stocks rated by J.P. Morgan, it is expected that Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) will benefit the most if it can control related loan credit risks. Additionally, China Merchants Bank (03968), Postal Savings Bank of China (01658) and Bank of China (03988) are also expected to benefit, with a focus on recommending risk control capabilities of China Merchants Bank.