UBS: Expects AIA (01299) second quarter new business value growth to accelerate quarter-on-quarter, rating "buy".

UBS released a research report stating that it estimates AIA (01299) will see a 10% year-on-year growth in earnings per share in the first half of the year, and a 5% growth in post-tax operating profit. It is expected that the mid-term dividend will increase by 9% to HKD 0.48 per share. However, the bank believes that the share buyback plan will not be updated for the time being. UBS pointed out that Lee Yuan Siong will take office as the new chairman on October 1st, and it is expected that major strategic adjustments will be clarified after he takes office. The target price is maintained at HKD 88, with a "buy" rating. UBS predicts that based on actual exchange rates (AER) and fixed exchange rates (CER), AIA's Value of New Business (VNB) in the first half of the year will increase by 16% and 15% respectively, and the growth rate is expected to accelerate to 21% and 18% in the second quarter, compared to 13% in the first quarter. This is mainly due to strong performance in the Hong Kong and China markets. The expected growth rate of VNB in the Hong Kong CER benchmark has been raised from 16% in the first quarter to 28%, while excluding the impact of economic expectations, it is expected that VNB in the China market will increase by 12%.