Shanghai Securities: Safe-haven properties of gold highlighted, ancient gold and Xaokeign's heavyweights lead new consumption trends.

Shanghai Securities released a research report stating that gold, known as the "king of currency", is showing strong safe-haven properties, and it is expected that the future gold price will maintain a long-term upward trend. Influenced by changes in overseas geopolitical situations, U.S. tariff policies, and escalating trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe, the market's demand for safe-haven assets continues to grow. Domestic gold prices have returned to the thousand yuan range, while COMEX gold remains stable in the range of $3300-3500 per ounce. At the same time, there is a structural differentiation in gold consumption, with ancient-style gold, hard-surface gold, and lightweight gold jewelry becoming popular in the market. The main points of Shanghai Securities are as follows: Significant differentiation in gold consumption structure, with safe-haven demand driving gold prices higher. On July 21st, COMEX gold returned above $3400 per ounce and is currently stabilizing in the range of $3300-3500; the World Gold Council stated that more central banks are starting to use local currency to directly purchase gold in their own countries. The bank predicts that the overall upward trend of gold prices will not decrease in the future. Domestic gold prices are rising, with prices of various gold jewelry brands in China returning to the thousand yuan range. The bank believes that changes in overseas geopolitical situations, U.S. tariff policies, and escalating trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe are further driving the growth of market's demand for safe-haven assets. After a phase of adjustment, gold prices are expected to maintain a long-term upward trend. Ancient-style gold and lightweight gold leading the new trend. From January to June 2025, the cumulative retail sales of gold and silver jewelry by enterprises above a certain size in China reached 194.8 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year. The latest statistics from the China National Gold Group Gold Jewelry Association show that in the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a decrease of 3.54% year-on-year, with gold jewelry at 199.826 tons, a decrease of 26.00%, and gold bars and coins at 264.242 tons, an increase of 23.69%. Due to high gold prices, there has been a structural adjustment in the consumption of gold jewelry, with ancient-style gold, hard-surface gold, and lightweight gold jewelry becoming more popular. Products that combine gold with other materials are loved by young consumers. Young consumers become the main drivers of innovation in gold consumption, accounting for 1/3 of gold jewelry consumption. According to the "Insight into China's Gold Jewelry Retail Market in 2024", young people aged 18 to 34 contributed to over one-third of the sales of gold jewelry. In order to better cater to the demands of young consumers, major gold jewelry brands have made improvements and innovations in shape, style, craftsmanship, material weight, etc., and have accelerated the launch of IP co-branded products, such as the Chiikawa co-branded model launched by CHOW TAI FOOK and the Saint Seiya series co-branded model launched by Lao Feng Xiang. Risk warning: Gold prices fluctuate; weak consumption of terminal gold jewelry; risks of industry policy changes; risks of intensified market competition, etc.