Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Platform Increases Investment in Instant Retail, Focusing on High Quality New Consumption Targets.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that multiple policies to promote consumption in 25H1 continue to be implemented, domestic demand is steadily recovering, the popularity of new consumption trends such as self-pleasure and social interaction is constantly rising, and platforms are focusing on instant retail to explore new growth. It is recommended to focus on e-commerce businesses that specialize in core businesses, invest heavily in AI, and engage in instant retail. In the long-term, high-quality gold and jewelry brands, comprehensive trade service providers that undergo digital transformation and are catalyzed by stable coins, consumer brands driven by IP to meet emotional needs, and upgraded department stores. The main points of Shenwan Hongyuan Group are as follows: From January to June 2025, the year-on-year growth in social retail sales increased by 5.0% (1) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total social retail sales in January-June 2025 accumulated to 24.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, driven by policies to promote consumption, with growth rates rebounding. (2) Online consumption remains strong, with total online retail sales in China reaching 7.4 trillion yuan in January-June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Physical goods online retail sales reached 6.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with online penetration reaching 24.9%. E-commerce sector The main businesses are stable, with ongoing demand for AI, the three major platforms increasing focus on takeaway services, competition becoming a normal cycle, and short-term net profits under pressure due to adjustments. (1) Alibaba: The group focuses on core businesses, the domestic e-commerce sector continues to grow, overseas profits are accelerating, cloud business demand is growing rapidly, investments in AI and instant retail businesses, which are expected to drive long-term growth in a positive cycle. The institution predicts that Alibaba's revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 will reach 249.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders at 36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. (2) JD: The company's supply chain barriers are solid, the policy of trading in old for new drives growth in electrified categories, the layout of apparel in daily department stores enhances non-electrical consumption awareness, instant retail extends into high-frequency scenarios to empower main traffic, and explores new wine tourism and overseas businesses. The institution predicts that revenue for the second quarter of 25 will increase by 15.2% to 335.7 billion yuan. (3) Meituan: Increased and continued subsidies for takeaway services stabilize user awareness, continuous breakthroughs in peak orders for instant retail, and maintenance of long-term market share. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to increase by 12.3% to 92.3 billion yuan, with net profit adjusted for fluctuations down by 20.2% to 10.9 billion yuan. (4) Pinduoduo: Increased support for merchants totaling hundreds of billions, steady expansion of overseas businesses, driving high-quality growth on the platform. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to increase by 8.3% to 105.1 billion yuan. Gold and jewelry sector Strong demand for gold bars in Q2, as gold prices stabilize, demand for gold jewelry gradually recovers, and high-end and fashionable gold demands lead the way, with social retail consumption of gold, silver, and jewelry increasing by 11.3% from January to June. (1) LAOPU GOLD: Brand momentum and consumer awareness double-explode, penetration and discourse power in high-end commercial districts continue to increase, with performance expected to significantly outperform the industry. (2) Leysen Jewellery Inc.: According to company announcements, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59 million yuan, a net loss of -37.0652 million yuan in the same period of 24H1, and a net profit of 69 million yuan in 25H1. (3) Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co., Ltd.: Gold bar sales are expected to grow rapidly in April-May, gold jewelry is gradually recovering, and the impact of category structural shocks is slowing. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to increase by 25-35% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 15-25% year-on-year. (4) Chow Tai Seng Jewellery: The company continues to upgrade its products and channels, accelerating the development of new products in the national treasure series, striving to launch high-quality benchmarks, the Trans Zhuge Pavilion focuses on the layout of the youthful market, linking IP to capture incremental demand, with revenue for the second quarter of 25 expected to decrease by10% to 5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders expected to decrease by 10% to 5% year-on-year. (5) Lao Feng Xiang: The company has strong brand and channel capabilities, with gold and jewelry demand recovering, and performance is expected to steadily improve. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to decrease by -15% to -5% year-on-year, with profits expected to decrease by-10% to 0% year-on-year. Retail business sector (1) Zhejiang China Commodities City Group: The first round of investment in the new market's six districts has successfully landed, with optimistic prospects for subsequent investment, and transaction volume for Yipay meets expectations. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to increase by 10-20% year-on-year, with profits increasing by 15-20% year-on-year. (2) MNSO: Domestic store sales are expected to recover, TOP TOY, a trendy brand, is expanding rapidly, and overseas expansion is accelerating. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to be 4.8 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 640 million yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. (3) Dashang Co., Ltd.: Focusing on high-quality existing projects, the company is actively upgrading and transforming department stores and supermarkets to improve single-store efficiency. Revenue for the second quarter of 25 is expected to decrease by -10% to 0% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to increase by 0-10% year-on-year. (4) Yonghui Superstores: In June 25, the number of store adjustments reached 124, with short-term pain expected due to factors such as store adjustments, closure of less profitable stores, and supply chain reforms, with net loss attributable to shareholders for the second quarter expected to reach -3.88 billion yuan, and net loss attributable to shareholder after adjustments to reach -9.67 billion yuan. (5) Chongqing Department Store: Upgrading and transforming department stores and supermarkets, benefiting from the 'trading in old for new' policy for home appliances, with investment income from Masco contributing continuously, and net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter of 25 is expected to increase by 8.0% year-on-year. Risk warning: Consumer demand falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, macroeconomic growth below expectations.