ASML Warns 2026 Growth May Stall Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty and Chipmaker Delays

ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS), the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, cautioned on Wednesday that it may not reach its previously projected growth targets for 2026. The warning comes as chipmakers delay key investment decisions while they await clarity on potential new U.S. tariffs on European goods.

The uncertainty centers around a possible 30% tariff on European exports to the U.S., which could increase the price of a single high-end ASML lithography machine from €250 million to €325 million, according to CFO Roger Dassen. “Clarity is what customers are looking for before they can really finalize their views as to what they’re going to do,” Dassen said during a media call.

ASML’s shares dropped as much as 7.8% on the news, on track for their sharpest single-day fall since October. The warning dragged down other European chip equipment peers, including ASM International (ASMI.AS), BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.AS), and Soitec (SOIT.PA).

The direct and indirect costs of tariffs could be significant for ASML, whose complex supply chain involves parts moving multiple times between Europe and the United States. CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged the “increasing level of uncertainty” due to both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, adding in an internal company interview that ASML was working closely with suppliers to manage potential disruptions.

Despite the clouds hanging over its longer-term outlook, ASML posted robust results for the quarter. Net bookings reached €5.54 billion ($6.4 billion), 25% above analysts’ consensus estimate of €4.44 billion, according to Visible Alpha data. Of these orders, extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems — ASML’s most advanced chipmaking tools — accounted for €2.3 billion, or roughly 42% of total bookings.

Analysts highlighted resilient demand driven by the boom in artificial intelligence. “The second quarter beats from top to bottom,” said Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam, pointing to strong orders from chipmakers serving the AI sector.

Chinese demand remained notably strong as well, representing about 27% of ASML’s machine sales over the past three quarters. Many Chinese chipmakers have accelerated purchases of less advanced lithography equipment to get ahead of potential U.S.-led export restrictions.

Investor Han Dieperink, CIO at Aureus, downplayed concerns about the immediate impact, citing the company’s solid pipeline. However, if growth does stall in 2026, it would mark ASML’s first flat year since 2012, breaking over a decade of consistent revenue expansion.

ASML reiterated its intention to pass any new tariffs directly to customers but acknowledged that delays in chipmakers’ investment decisions could weigh on its forward sales. “While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” Fouquet said.