NVIDIA Surpasses $4 Trillion Market Cap, Outpacing Total Valuation of Major Economies

On July 9 local time, NVIDIA's share price climbed 1.80% to a record high, with its market capitalization briefly surpassing the $4 trillion mark—making it the first company in history to reach this milestone. The figure exceeds the combined stock market valuations of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Since the low point in April, NVIDIA's stock has risen nearly 90%. The company’s shares have gained more than 170% in 2024 after a surge of approximately 240% in 2023.

NVIDIA's valuation has advanced rapidly amid global enthusiasm for AI, growing from around $500 billion in 2021 to the current record. Apple previously held the highest market capitalization at $3.915 trillion by the end of 2024 but has since seen declines due to its limited AI presence and the impact of tariffs. In contrast, NVIDIA’s position in the AI sector has driven unprecedented gains.

Despite recent challenges, including the U.S. government’s export ban on its H20 chip to China—which caused a $5.5 billion inventory write-down and a loss of $15 billion in potential sales—analysts remain bullish. Mizuho Securities raised its target price from $170 to $185, citing the expected rollout of NVIDIA’s next-generation AI chip, Rubin, and ongoing efforts to develop new accelerators for the Chinese market. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives anticipates NVIDIA’s valuation will reach $5 trillion within the next 18 months.

However, some analysts have voiced caution. Jim Chanos, a well-known short seller, warned that the current AI-driven enthusiasm echoes the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. He noted that if market sentiment reverses, capital expenditure on AI could quickly decline, affecting revenue and performance forecasts. While this scenario has not yet unfolded, Chanos believes many are underestimating the risks involved.