Encrypt investors rush to buy put options, can Bitcoin maintain the $100,000 threshold?

Bitcoin options trading data shows that as global financial markets face increasing geopolitical and economic growth uncertainties, traders are hedging the risk of Bitcoin prices falling below $100,000. After Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, leading to a significant escalation in the Middle East geopolitical situation, a "risk aversion frenzy" once again swept global markets, with high valuation stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and risky assets like cryptocurrencies collectively entering a downward trajectory. If the Federal Reserve sends a hawkish signal on Wednesday afternoon, it could trigger a test of the psychological barrier of $100,000, while any degree of "credible cooling" in the Middle East geopolitical situation could become a major catalyst for upside risk assets. Statistics show that the "put/call ratio" compiled by the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit has surged to 2.17 in the past 24 hours, highlighting a strong tendency in the market for protective downside bets. Tracking put options on a cryptocurrency can provide holders with downside insurance to sell at a specific price, with demand particularly strong for short-term options. In the options expiring on June 20, the put options with a strike price of $100,000 have the highest open interest, with a put/call ratio of 1.16, indicating market concerns about a recent Bitcoin price drop. The world's largest market value cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, had previously hit a historic high of $111,980 on May 22, rising more than 50% since Donald Trump, who openly supported cryptocurrency development last November, was re-elected as U.S. president. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading at $104,377, with little change. Put/Call Ratio - Deribit Derivative Platform's open interest in options divided by exercise price As Federal Reserve policymakers take a long-term wait-and-see stance in the face of highly uncertain macroeconomic environment, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious amid geopolitical turbulence: the possibility of the Middle East geopolitical situation spinning out of control, turbulent energy prices compounded by Trump administration's global tariff policies, exacerbating risks facing inflation and the labor market. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time on Wednesday, with investors focusing on Fed officials' latest forecasts on U.S. economic growth, unemployment rates, and interest rate trends. "If the Federal Reserve sends an unexpectedly hawkish signal, it will boost the dollar exchange rate and may test the psychologically significant $100,000 super barrier," said Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, Chief Investment Officer at XBTO, in a report. "Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation is still unknown, any credible signs of a cooling Middle East situation could be a significant catalyst for risk appetite, while further deterioration in the situation could trigger a sharp downward movement in risk assets once again." Optimistic investors in Bitcoin generally believe that as the dollar exchange rate continues to decline, Bitcoin, with its safe-haven properties and store of value, will surge to $200,000 by the end of the year. While the dollar index has rebounded after easing tensions between the U.S. and China, more and more Wall Street investment institutions are stating that this rebound is temporary, and are emphasizing that a potential "dollar bear market" that could last for years has just begun, sparked by the Trump administration's chaotic, disruptive "U.S. Economic Transformation Action." In 2024, the Standard Chartered Bank, which accurately predicted the unprecedented bull market curve of Bitcoin, once again chants for Bitcoin, predicting that the price of Bitcoin will soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, reaching historic highs, and also forecasting that Bitcoin will skyrocket to $500,000 before Trump officially leaves office in 2029.