Former vice chairman Ferguson: Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this week.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said in an interview that he believes the Fed will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting, and the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting is also low. Ferguson described the Fed's current stance as "wait-and-see mode," meaning that they are vigilant about inflation risks while hoping for further inflation slowdown. "I think they (the Fed) will signal high vigilance at this meeting, and will be very patient before cutting rates - which may disappoint some people," Ferguson said. He pointed out that there are concerns about both short-term and long-term inflation expectations, which is a key factor that makes the Fed cautious about signaling a rate cut. Ferguson particularly emphasized that external factors such as oil price concerns sparked by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are complicating the Fed's decision-making. "All signs indicate that the Fed will be extremely cautious this year," he said, noting that this uncertainty makes it difficult to achieve what he calls "ideal rate cuts" driven by controlled inflation (rather than economic weakness). Looking ahead, Ferguson believes that while hopes for a rate cut in 2025 are slim, the situation may be clearer next year. "By next year, hopefully the trend of slowing inflation will be more apparent, and they may make slight adjustments to interest rates," he added. However, he also warned not to be overly optimistic about recent positive inflation data, and reminded that similar trends last year led to disappointing data revisions.