Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, and the market is focusing on U.S. retail sales in May.

1. Before the market on June 17th (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.60%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.58%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.62%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.46%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 1.07%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.31%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.74% to $71.47 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.78% to $74.53 per barrel. Market News Early "sprint" but lack of momentum? US retail sales in May may see a significant decline. Due to consumers' early purchases to avoid price increases due to tariffs, US retail sales in May may experience a noticeable decline. Economists expect that US consumers slowed their use of credit and debit cards in the month, indicating a cooling overall consumer sentiment. According to FactSet's survey, US retail sales in May are expected to decrease by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a slight increase of 0.1% in April, this decline is particularly prominent. Economist Sam Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts that the decline in May retail sales may reach 1%, which would be the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US Census Bureau will release the latest preliminary monthly data on retail and food service sales on Tuesday morning at 8:30, which investors are closely watching. Why doesn't the Fed cut interest rates despite cooling inflation? Fed megaphone: If it weren't for tariffs, interest rates would be cut this week. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed megaphone," pointed out in an article that there is ample reason to believe that the Fed would be ready to cut interest rates this week due to recent improvements in inflation, if not for the risk of tariffs affecting prices. Instead, Fed officials are expected to extend their wait-and-see attitude on Wednesday. At this meeting, Fed officials will evaluate how the economy has coped with the record increase in tariffs over the past few months. Inflation data for the past three months has been relatively moderate. However, officials are concerned that the announced tariffs since March may disrupt what economists refer to as "inflation expectations". The article anticipates that whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year and by how much will depend to a certain extent on how officials view the risks of inflation expectations. US Senate bill to terminate Clean Energy Fuels Corp. tax credits early, CECEP Solar Energy industry suffers heavy blow. Republican senators in the US Senate have introduced a bill to terminate tax credits for wind energy and CECEP Solar Energy earlier than other energy sources, only making moderate adjustments to most other incentive measures. This move dashed hopes for substantial cuts in policy that had been passed by the House of Representatives. After the bill was announced, CECEP Solar Energy stocks performed the worst in pre-market trading. Bloomberg New Energy financial analyst Ethan Sindall criticized the limited impact of the bill on the Clean Energy Fuels Corp. industry, only raising it from a grade of D to D+. The bill will terminate incentives for wind energy and CECEP Solar Energy in 2028, while tax breaks for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy will be gradually phased out by 2036. Additionally, the bill will eliminate tax breaks for electric vehicle purchases and hydrogen production incentives, and end tax credits for companies leasing rooftop CECEP Solar Energy systems to homeowners. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: US households will continue to "support" the US stock market, with retirement savings playing a key role. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. pointed out that US households will provide critical support to the stock market through the increasing influence of retirement savings. Led by David Kostin, the team expects US households to directly purchase $425 billion in US stocks this year, second only to corporate demand of $675 billion. They wrote in a report, "'No choice' investment logic still prevails in American households' retirement accounts." This term refers to investors lacking alternative assets outside of stocks. Strategists believe that the proportion of 401(k) retirement plans in overall retirement savings has increased, and their increased focus on stock allocations indicates that these investments have become significantly more important to the stock market. The average stock allocation in retirement accounts in 2022 has increased from 66% in 2013 to 71%, with stocks accounting for as much as 90% for savers in their twenties. US economic slowdown + deficit topping, UBS Group AG raises alarm about dollar depreciation. UBS Group AG's Chief Investment Office (CIO) of Wealth Management released a report stating that due to uncertainties in US tariffs and economic outlook, the US dollar index fell to a three-year low in June. With the US economy slowing down and increasing concerns about the fiscal deficit, the dollar is expected to weaken further over the next 12 months. The CIO stated that the US dollar index has dropped nearly 10% in 2025. Harsher than expected US tariffs have weakened investors' belief in US exceptionalism. The CIO believes that the traditional role of the dollar as a "safe haven" asset is facing challenges. The CIO expects the dollar to continue to weaken, as investors may "sell on rallies." Given the ongoing trend of global diversification away from the dollar and increasing concerns about the US fiscal outlook, any short-term rebound of the dollar is unlikely to be sustained. US cryptocurrency regulation takes a crucial step! Stablecoin bill faces Senate test on Tuesday. The US Senate is set to take a final vote on the "GENIUS Act" on June 17th (Tuesday). This bill, aimed at regulating stablecoins, is expected to be passed, and the crypto industry hopes this bill will enhance its legitimacy. Last Wednesday, the US Senate cleared procedural hurdles for the "GENIUS Act" amendment with a vote of 68 to 30. This stablecoin bill will establish regulatory rules for USD-pegged tokens used for payments. The core provision of the legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves equivalent to 100% of USD-denominated assets, including short-term US Treasuries or regulated cash-like assets. Supporters believe this will push USD-pegged stablecoins to become mainstream payment tools. Stock News Republican Senate tax bill proposes early termination of wind energy and CECEP Solar Energy subsidies, CECEP Solar Energy sector plunges. Following the proposal by Republican senators in the Senate to gradually phase out tax credits for CECEP Solar Energy and wind energy in President Trump's tax and spending bill revision, CECEP Solar Energy stocks plunged, raising concerns about the future of renewable energy subsidies. Before the market opened, Sunrun (RUN.US) plunged by 32%, SolarEdge fell by 25%, Enphase (ENPH.US) fell by 18%, Array Technologies (ARRY.US) fell by 11%, and First Solar (FSLR.US) fell by 13%. While the bill will extend incentives for hydropower, nuclear power, and geothermal energy to 2036, the CECEP Solar Energy Industry Association warned that this could seriously damage the domestic CECEP Solar Energy market. Criticism intensifies, Strategy (MSTR.US) switches to using preferred stock to purchase Bitcoin. Strategy (MSTR.US) controlled by Michael Saylor has purchased $1.05 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past seven days, marking the third consecutive week that the crypto company used preferred stock instead of common stock to fund its purchases. The filings submitted on Monday show that the former MicroStrategy company purchased 10,100 Bitcoins at an average price of $104,080 during June 9-15. This is the company's largest purchase in five weeks, increasing its total holdings to around $63.4 billion. As Saylor emphasizes preferred stock, his strategy of increasing cryptocurrency holdings is attracting more critiques, with critics expressing concerns about the huge premium of the company's common stock relative to its token holdings. American Express Company (AXP.US) invests in "largest renovation" of refreshed credit cards. American Express Company announced on Monday that it will undergo a significant upgrade for its US consumer and business versions of the Platinum Card later this year, marking the "largest investment in card refresh in more than 40 years" for the company. Howard Grosfield, President of the American Consumer Services Group, said in a statement, "The benefits and services of the Platinum Card resonate across generations, particularly favored by Millennials and Gen Zthis group accounted for 35% of total US consumer spending last quarter. We will elevate the card experience to new heights, not only enhancing travel, dining, and lifestyle benefits, but also innovating in terms of visuals and usability to meet evolving customer needs." SoftBank sells $4.8 billion in T-Mobile (TMUS.US) shares, cashing in to expand AI layout. SoftBank Group raised about $4.8 billion through the sale of T-Mobile shares, providing funding for the colossal artificial intelligence plan of this Japanese company. The final terms of the transaction show that the Tokyo-based tech conglomerate sold 21.5 million shares of T-Mobile stock at a price of $224 per share, priced at a discount of 3% from the lower end of the $224 to $228 price range, compared to T-Mobile's closing price of $230.99 on Monday, through an overnight block trade. SoftBank is significantly increasing investments to push AI reasoning capabilities beyond human capabilities: it plans to inject up to $30 billion into OpenAI and work with it to invest thousands of billions of dollars in US and global data centers and related infrastructure. The company's initial debt financing plans were previously hindered by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. From steadfast holding to decisive clearance! NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) "fan" fund manager warns of multiple risks. Hedge fund founder Jonah Cheng said NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) was the most successful investment in his career. But now, he has sold his final batch of NVIDIA Corporation shares and expressed doubts about the future of the $3.5 trillion chip giant. The founder of the Captain Global Fund, who focused on the tech sector, achieved a return of 42% last year. The fund was one of the many beneficiaries of NVIDIA Corporation's soaring stock price over the past decade. When Jonah Cheng founded the fund in 2016, NVIDIA Corporation was one of the first stocks he bought, and he subsequently increased his investment several times. Jonah Cheng sold all NVIDIA Corporation shares in the first quarter of this year, citing concerns about delays in the GB200 server rack deliveries. Important Economic Data and Events Previews 20:30 Beijing time: US May Import Prices monthly rate (%), US May Retail Sales monthly rate (%). 21:15 Beijing time: US May Industrial Production monthly rate (%). Next day 04:30 Beijing time: US API Crude Oil Inventory Change (in thousand barrels) for the week ending June 13th.