Trump leaves G7 early, Middle East conflict may escalate again?

Trump suddenly interrupted his trip to the G7 summit in Canada and urgently returned to the United States, as the tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate. Although the US President emphasized that his return was not related to promoting a ceasefire, his change in plans still stirred global nerves. Just as he was departing for his homeland, several explosions occurred in the eastern part of the Iranian capital of Tehran and the mutual attacks between Israel and Iran had intensified. Despite the White House reiterating that the US military's role was limited to assistance in defense, the deployment of the "Nimitz" aircraft carrier battle group to the Middle East ahead of schedule has kept the market on edge. Brent crude oil prices in London remained volatile at $73.54 per barrel in early trading, up 6% from before the conflict erupted, reflecting investors' deep concerns about the spread of war to oil-producing regions. In the past 72 hours, the Israeli Air Force has conducted multiple rounds of strikes across Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities including those in Tehran. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed the destruction of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, while the fate of the deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility remains uncertain. In the geopolitical chess game, all parties are weighing their options carefully. Trump took to social media to criticize Macron for misunderstanding his strategic intentions while reiterating the bottom line that "Iran must not have nuclear weapons", but remained secretive about specific military actions. It is noteworthy that the US Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs, Vico, is expected to meet with the Iranian Foreign Minister this week, less than a hundred days since the last round of nuclear negotiations stalled. Meanwhile, Israel has continued its hardline approach, swiftly gaining air superiority after issuing an "evacuation order" in Tehran. Prime Minister Netanyahu candidly stated that "destroying the nuclear threat is the only option", while Iranian President Raisi Rouhani and Turkish President Erdogan emphasized retaliation that would make the other party regret their actions during their phone call. The battle data is showing a stalemate: Iran claimed that over 200 military and civilians were killed within its borders, while Israel disclosed the deaths and injuries of over 400 civilians. However, the real determinant of the conflict's direction may lie in the power struggle outside the battlefield. As Israel calls for international evacuation from Tehran, the White House spokesperson Feff emphasized on social media that "the US military's defensive posture remains unchanged". This delicate balance is evident in Trump's statements: he admitted that "both sides want to reach an agreement" while refusing to disclose any specific plans, leaving the suspense of "we will take action" before leaving Canada. The current situation in the Middle East is like a pressure cooker, with Israel's air superiority, Iran's proxy network, and the US's ambiguous policy forming a dangerous triangle. The market remains cautious, waiting for that critical point where the restart of nuclear negotiations brings a turning point or a miscalculation triggers a larger conflict, the answer may be hidden in the anti-aircraft fire lighting up the Tehran night sky again.