How to understand the probability of the dividend index outperforming in June is only 12.5%?

6300 216 21667.92% 6At that time, the weight of the automobile sector in the CSI Dividend Index reached 7%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index with the help of the automotive sector.June 2015: In the situation where the market bubble burst, high dividend direction showed strong defensive qualities. As the market peaked in mid-June and began a trend of downward movement, the high dividend direction generally proved to be resistant to the decline, ultimately resulting in the outperformance of the CSI Dividend Index. June 2018: With the escalation of trade friction and currency depreciation, the market experienced significant fluctuations, and once again, the high dividend direction displayed its resistance to the downturn. The trade friction between China and the United States escalated again at the end of June, while at the same time, the Chinese yuan rapidly depreciated. Combined with the amplification of credit risk during the same period, market risk appetite quickly declined, with the high dividend direction of household appliances and banks showing resistance to the downturn. June 2021: Led by coal industry leaders, the CSI Dividend Index significantly outperformed. Against the backdrop of global easing in 2020 and continued economic recovery in 2021, coupled with supply-side contraction, coal prices saw a significant increase in 2021. In June, the important weighted stock Yankuang Energy Group in the CSI Dividend Index rose by 13%, providing significant support for the Index's outperformance. How to view the dividend asset market in June of this year? Looking at the present, in the absence of new industry logic and significant market fluctuations, dividend assets may gradually enter a headwind period in June, with dividend ex-dividend dates for different individual stocks being important observation points. However, it is worth noting that for long-term investors, a headwind period may be a good entry point. Looking at the performance of major index portfolios, whether it is our constructed "Neutral Dividend" portfolio or the Dividend Total Return Index, both have shown a consistent upward trend. In the current context of high geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing China-US trade friction, dividend assets remain a solid choice for long-term allocation. In terms of high-frequency tracking indicators, tracking congested positions can also be used, with dividend assets being the only direction where the congestion bottom rule is more obvious. Taking the dividend index as an example, since the strengthening of dividend strategies in 2022, the bottom of the dividend index has remained relatively stable (trading volume ratio between 1.1%-1.2%). Whenever sentiment falls to this level, there is often an increase in fund allocation to dividend assets, resulting in significant excess return. For example, after experiencing a headwind period in February, the dividend index returned to this position at the end of March, followed by a significant increase in excess returns. Therefore, if sentiment declines or even returns to historical buying levels around dividend asset headwind periods, it is a good time to allocate funds. This article is sourced from the "GF Strategy" official account, GMTEight editor: Jiang Yuanhua.