Goldman Sachs: Under multiple challenges such as high inflation and trade tensions, the "patience" signal of the Federal Reserve continues to strengthen.

Goldman Sachs stated in a report that Federal Reserve officials have shown a high level of caution in recent adjustments to monetary policy, emphasizing the need to wait for more data to support before taking action. Overall, the core considerations for current decision-making include high inflation, uncertainty in tariff policy, and potential risks in the labor market. Goldman Sachs pointed out that since the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, several officials have been consistent with Chairman Powell's position, believing that current policies are in a "good position" and that they need to wait for clearer economic data before deciding on whether to adjust interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated, "I would rather act slowly but in the right direction, than act quickly and make a mistake." She mentioned that if there is "clear and convincing data" before June, the FOMC may adjust interest rates, but the premise is to "determine the correct direction of action." Currently, the impact of tariffs on the economy has become a focus of discussion. Goldman Sachs stated that Federal Reserve officials generally acknowledge that the actual economic impact of tariffs is greater than expected. While theoretically tariffs may only cause prices to rise temporarily, there is also a risk of triggering more persistent inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that tariffs are likely to at least temporarily drive up inflation, with the inflation impact potentially lasting longer, and factors such as supply chain disruptions could prolong the one-time inflation shock. St. Louis Fed President Bullard also mentioned that tariff changes have multiple direct and indirect impacts on prices and economic activity, with indirect and second-round effects possibly having a more long-lasting impact on inflation. Fed Governor Waller pointed out that in a "high tariff" scenario, if the economy slows significantly or even threatens to enter a recession, he expects to support faster and larger interest rate cuts; while in a "low tariff" scenario, he supports a limited monetary policy response. At the same time, some officials are concerned that tariffs may lead to higher inflation and a weaker labor market, putting the Federal Reserve's dual goals of full employment and price stability in conflict. Powell stated that if this situation arises, the Fed will assess the gap between the economy and its targets and prioritize ensuring stable inflation expectations, as "without price stability, long-term strong labor market cannot be achieved." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari bluntly stated that current policy changes have put the dual mandate "in a tense state." Furthermore, officials are also concerned about the potential impact of rising uncertainties on consumer and business consumption and investment decisions. Chicago Fed President Evans said, "In the face of uncertainty, patience is the only antidote." Powell pointed out that continued high uncertainty may inhibit investment and further drag down economic growth.