Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures rise together, heavyweight non-farm data strikes.

date
02/05/2025
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GMT Eight
Before the US stock market opened on May 2 (Tuesday), futures for the three major US stock market indexes all rose.
1. On May 2nd (Tuesday) before the U.S. market opens, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.42%, the S&P 500 index futures rose 0.33%, and the Nasdaq futures rose 0.24%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose 1.82%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.82%, the France CAC 40 index rose 1.55%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.50%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 1.11%, to $58.58 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.98%, to $61.52 per barrel. Market News April non-farm payrolls are coming tonight, bond traders bet on tariff "freezing" the U.S. job market. The April non-farm employment report will be released tonight, economists expect the report to show an addition of 135,000 new jobs in April, lower than the 228,000 in March. Just before the report is released, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by nearly four 25 basis point cuts by 2025, one more than expected before President Trump announced a large-scale tariff policy last month. U.S. bond investors are betting that President Donald Trump's tariff policy will slow down the progress of the world's largest economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Japan-U.S. trade negotiations accelerate, Japanese finance minister hints at U.S. debt holdings as a negotiation "chip". Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that Japan holds a large amount of U.S. debt and is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, which could become a "chip" in its trade negotiations with the United States. This week, Japan's chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is in Washington for the second round of talks with U.S. representatives. After the latest round of talks, Akazawa said that Japan's goal is to reach a trade agreement with the United States in June. Small parcels trigger high inflation: 145% tariffs force retailers to retreat, the "inflation beast" is set to sweep the United States again. E-commerce goods from China, the largest trading partner of the United States in daily necessities and essential consumer goods, are facing tariffs of up to 145%. The U.S. tariff exemption for low-value goods from China ended on Friday, prompting some online retailers, especially those focusing on daily necessities, essential consumer goods, and popular clothing products, to stop serving the U.S. market due to tariff issues. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently raised its core PCE inflation index by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% by the end of 2025, and expects it to rise to 4%, emphasizing that even by 2026, core PCE would find it difficult to return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Global fund trends revealed: selling U.S. stocks, selling gold, moving to Japanese and European stock markets. A research report released by Bank of America Corp's global research department on Friday showed that global investors continued to sell U.S. stocks and switch to buying Japanese and European stocks in the past week ending Wednesday. Approximately $8.9 billion flowed out of the U.S. stock market that week, but the U.S. market had a brief influx of large amounts the previous week. In terms of funding in the gold market, with the continuous decline in gold spot and futures prices, there were outflows at the weekly level for the first time since January this year. However, the Bank of America Corp research team said they did not find signs of large-scale foreign investors "liquidating" U.S. assets: U.S. stocks still attracted net inflows of nearly $4 billion that week; while there was a "slight sell-off" of foreign funds in the U.S. bond market, there was a strong trend of net inflows in the previous six weeks. Individual stock news Unfazed by falling oil prices! Shell (SHEL.US) Q1 profits exceed expectations, plans to start $3.5 billion buyback plan. Shell announced on Friday that adjusted net profit for the first quarter was $5.58 billion, better than the market's expectation of $5.07 billion, compared to $7.73 billion in the same period last year. Shell's first-quarter operating cash flow dropped to $9.28 billion, lower than the $13.16 billion in the previous quarter. Net debt rose from $38.81 billion in the fourth quarter of last year to $41.52 billion. Shell maintains its investor return and capital expenditure plan, increasing debt to fill the cash flow gap caused by the drop in oil prices. Shell CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement on Friday: "Our strong performance and solid balance sheet give us the confidence to restart the $3.5 billion share buyback program in the next three months." The stock rose nearly 3% before market open. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) Q1 profits match expectations, maintains stock buyback plan. Exxon Mobil Corporation announced on Friday that adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $1.76, meeting analysts' expectations. Due to increased production from low-cost projects such as Guyana and the Permian Basin, this oil giant was able to continue its share buyback program despite recent drops in oil prices. Exxon Mobil Corporation said it repurchased $4.8 billion of stock in the first quarter, consistent with its plan to repurchase $20 billion annually by 2026. The stock rose nearly 1% before market open. Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) Q1 profits exceed expectations, plans to reduce stock buybacks. Chevron Corporation reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.18 for the first quarter, higher than the average analyst expectation of $2.10 per share. As the company cut spending on refineries, capital expenditures were lower than in the same period last year. The company plans to repurchase approximately $2.75 billion of stock in the second quarter, a decrease of about 30% from the repurchase amount in the first quarter of this year. Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said, "Oil prices have changed. From a supply and demand perspective, the market seems to be softening." The stock fell over 2% before market open. MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) Q1 losses significantly expanded, but Bitcoin reserve strategy "thrives". Financial data shows that "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy's first-quarter revenue...Compared with the same period last year, the revenue decreased by 3.6% to $1.111 billion, lower than the market's general expectation of $1.164 billion; the adjusted earnings per share were -16.53 dollars, which is significantly different from the analysts' average expectation of -0.02 dollars. This loss is due to the company adopting a new accounting policy, which requires valuing its large amount of Bitcoin holdings at market prices. At the same time, the company continues to focus on capital market strategies to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading.Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) Q2 service revenue slightly missed expectations. According to the financial report, Apple Inc.'s second quarter (ending in March) earnings per share were $1.65, higher than the market's expectation of $1.63, with revenue reaching $95.4 billion, also surpassing analysts' estimate of $94.66 billion. Looking at the product lines, the iPhone remains the company's most important source of revenue, with quarterly revenue of $46.84 billion, slightly higher than the expected $45.84 billion, representing a nearly 2% year-over-year growth. The most concerning aspect for the market is that service revenue was slightly lower than expected, at $26.65 billion, although it saw an 11.65% year-over-year growth, it was lower than the 14.2% growth in the same period last year, and below the market's expectation of $26.7 billion. The stock fell more than 3% in pre-market trading. Important economic data and events forecast 8:30 p.m. Beijing time - US April Nonfarm Payrolls Change (Thousands), US April Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%), US April Private Nonfarm Employment Change (Thousands), US April Labor Participation Rate (%), US April Manufacturing Employment Change Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands), US April Unemployment Rate (%) 10:00 p.m. Beijing time - US March Durable Goods Orders revisions (%), US March Factory Orders MoM (%)