Central China: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in March has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the subsequent decline in demand.

Central China released a research report stating that in March 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 20.24GW, an increase of 124.39% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity in the country was 59.71GW, an increase of 30.54% year-on-year. In order to seize the policy dividends, industrial and commercial projects as well as distributed photovoltaic projects rushed to install, leading to a rapid increase in monthly installation demand. The phase of policy implementation resulted in an upsurge in demand, causing a decline in the prices of photovoltaic products. Looking ahead, the substantial increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on China and other major photovoltaic production regions such as Southeast Asia is expected to have a negative impact on the export expectations of photovoltaic products. It is anticipated that enterprises will continue to diversify their markets and seek new growth points. The main points of view of Central China are as follows: Policy metrics drive high growth in photovoltaic installations in March, and the industrial chain has shown some progress In March 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 20.24GW, an increase of 124.39% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity in the country was 59.71GW, an increase of 30.54% year-on-year. Industrial and commercial projects as well as distributed photovoltaic projects rushed to install in order to seize the policy dividends, leading to a significant increase in monthly installation demand. In March, China's polysilicon production was 105,500 tons, an increase of 14.30% from the previous month, and the production of monocrystalline silicon was around 53GW, an increase of 20.45% month-on-month. It is expected that under the background of continuing pressure on profits, industry self-discipline, and controlled production to maintain prices, the industry's supply is expected to slow down and accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity. After the rebound in prices of silicon wafers, CECEP Solar Energy cells, and photovoltaic modules, prices are once again declining According to PVInfolink statistics, as of April 23, 2025, the average price of domestic polysilicon dense material is 40 yuan/kg, N-type silicon wafers - 182*210mm/130um, single-piece N-type silicon wafers - 210mm/130m are priced at 1.15 and 1.50 yuan/piece respectively, N-type TOPCon cell slices-182-183.75mm/25.0%+, TOPCon cell slices -210mm/25.0%+ are priced at 0.285 yuan/watt and 0.30 yuan/watt respectively, and double-sided dual-glass 182*182-210mm/210mm single TOPCon module is priced at 0.72 yuan/watt. It is expected that there will still be expectations of price declines in the photovoltaic products in May. Considering that the main links are still in a state of sustained losses, the overall space for price declines is limited. Efficiency innovations in crystalline silicon perovskite and tandem cell technologies continue to advance Scientists at the University of Queensland in Australia have developed a new type of halide tin perovskite (THP) CECEP Solar Energy cell using environmentally friendly perovskite technology, with a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 16.65%, breaking the world record for similar cells, avoiding the high toxicity and other environmental risks of mainstream lead-based perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells, providing a new direction for the development of green energy technology. LONGi Green Energy Technology's independently developed crystalline silicon - perovskite tandem cell has achieved a conversion efficiency of 34.85%, once again breaking the global record for this technology. Investment advice The phase of policy implementation has resulted in a realization of the surge in installation demand, causing a decline in photovoltaic product prices. Looking ahead, the substantial increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on China and other major photovoltaic production regions such as Southeast Asia is expected to have a negative impact on the export expectations of photovoltaic products. It is anticipated that enterprises will continue to diversify their markets and seek new growth points. On the other hand, achieving a complete reversal of supply and demand, and a resurgence in prosperity will require more positive factors to drive the industry, which will still be in a period of reducing excess capacity. The PB valuation of the photovoltaic index is at a historically low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the main and auxiliary material sectors with significant losses and clear expectations of capacity reduction, as well as the areas of technological innovation. Focus on leading companies in photovoltaic glass, integrated component factories, polycrystalline silicon materials, electronic silver paste, BC battery technology, and other related fields. Risk warning Risks of a slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth; risks of international trade frictions; risks of mismatched supply and demand in phases, overcapacity, and declining profitability; risks of policy implementation falling short of expectations.