Guotai Haitong: Rare and scattered metals and sputtering targets boost the rapid development of new quality productive forces.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that China's gallium, germanium, and indium resource reserves account for 80%-85%, 40.7%, and 72.73% of global resource reserves, respectively; by 2024, China's high-performance sputtering target market size has grown to 46.7 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 12.89%, and is expected to reach 72 billion yuan by 2029. In the 2025 semi-annual reports, listed companies involved in rare and scattered metal production cover segments including gallium, indium, germanium, tellurium, and rhenium. Rare and scattered metals and targets are important components and supporting materials of contemporary high-tech new materials, and their high-end manufacturing industry will promote the rapid development of domestic new quality productive forces and the continuous expansion of import substitution. Guotai Haitong's main views are as follows: Overview of rare and scattered metals and their relationship with metals, nonferrous metals, and rare metals 1) Rare and scattered metals usually include seven elements: gallium (Ga), indium (In), thallium (Tl), germanium (Ge), selenium (Se), tellurium (Te), and rhenium (Re). Rare and scattered metals play irreplaceable roles in both traditional fields and strategic emerging industries. According to data cited from the "Overview of China's Rare and Scattered Metal Mineral Resources," including the "United States Geological Survey," China's gallium, germanium, and indium resource reserves account for 80%-85%, 40.7%, and 72.73% of global resource reserves, respectively. 2) Metals include ferrous metals, nonferrous metals, and rare metals. 3) Rare metals further include five major categories of metals, including rare and scattered metals. Applications and supply-demand conditions of the rare and scattered metals family 1) The main demand for gallium is integrated circuits (79%). In recent years, both gallium supply and demand have been strong, causing prices to fluctuate at high levels. 2) The main demand for indium is ITO targets (70%). In recent years, indium demand has been strong, causing prices to fluctuate upward continuously. 3) Thallium is widely used in high-temperature superconductivity, national defense and military, optical applications, and others. In recent years, thallium supply has recovered, causing prices to spike and then fall back. 4) The main demand for germanium is optical fiber communications (30%), PET catalysts (25%), and others. Since 2017, germanium demand has rebounded from the bottom, causing prices to spike and then fall back. 5) The main demand for selenium is metallurgy (40%), agriculture and animal health (20%), and others. Since 2019, selenium ore supply and demand have become somewhat tight, causing prices to show volatile upward movement. 6) The main demand for tellurium is CECEP Solar Energy cells (60%). Since 2017, tellurium ore supply and demand have become somewhat tight, and prices have risen somewhat after consolidating at the bottom. 7) The main demand for rhenium is high-temperature turbine engine components (80%). Since 2020, rhenium ore demand has risen somewhat, causing prices to rebound from the bottom. Preparation, applications, and supply-demand conditions of sputtering targets 1) Sputtering targets use high-speed energetic particle beams to bombard the surface of a solid (target), causing its atoms to leave and deposit on the substrate surface to form a surface electronic thin film. Sputtering targets are divided into planar targets and rotary targets. 2) By 2024, China's high-performance sputtering target market size has grown to 46.7 billion yuan, with an average annual growth of 12.89%. In the future, China's high-performance sputtering target market size is expected to reach 72 billion yuan by 2029. Indium tin oxide targets (ITO targets) are ceramic compound targets formed by mixing indium oxide and tin oxide powders, mainly used to prepare flat panel displays and HJT cells, and have advantages such as high light transmittance, good conductivity, and good etching performance. The capacity of ITO targets in China's flat panel display industry will grow to 1,210 tons by 2024, with an average annual growth of 13.62%. Global HJT cell shipments will grow to 77 GW by 2025, with an average annual growth of 173.84%. In 2024, actual HJT cell shipments are expected to reach 30 GW, corresponding to a global HJT cell ITO target industry market size of 420 tons in 2024. Listed companies involved in rare and scattered metal production in the 2025 semi-annual reports 1) Gallium: Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry, Sinomine Resource Group, Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet. 2) Indium: Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry, Zhuzhou Smelter Group. 3) Thallium: None. 4) Germanium: Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium, Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry, Sinomine Resource Group, Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet, Yunnan Luoping Zinc&Electricity. 5) Selenium: None. 6) Tellurium: Hunan Silver. 7) Rhenium: Science Environmental Protection. Risk warnings: price fluctuation risk of rare and scattered metals and targets, industrial chain rupture risk, substitution risk, and others.