CITIC Securities: Cross-border e-commerce fulfillment models are iterating, driven by tightening small-parcel tariff policies in the US and Europe; watch for a window to allocate at low valuations.

CITIC Securities research report states: On the trade environment front, the cancellation of the US de minimis tariff exemption for small parcels is now a foregone conclusion, and the EU will eliminate the tariff exemption for parcels under EUR 150 starting July 2026, while explicitly requiring non-EU platforms to assume compliance responsibility as importers. The industry is accelerating its shift from small-parcel direct mail to semi-managed/POP and overseas warehouse fulfillment, with rising barriers to entry and concentration expected to increase toward leading players, though short-term compliance restructuring pains lie ahead. On the demand side, according to Euromonitor, global retail e-commerce reached approximately USD 4.66 trillion in 2025, up 10.4% year-on-year, with major export destinations such as the US and Europe maintaining mid-to-high single-digit growth and emerging regions growing even faster, with overall growth outpacing retail sales. Looking ahead to 2027, as fulfillment models gradually stabilize, platform players are expected to recover on a low base in 2026, and it is recommended to watch for a low-valuation allocation window created by the high-pressure policy environment.