Bank of Korea warns: if AI spending slows, South Korea's chip exports could fall by as much as $100 billion.

According to data from the Bank of Korea, if large US technology companies slow their capital expenditure in artificial intelligence next year, South Korea's semiconductor exports could be $50 billion to $100 billion lower than previous forecasts. In a written response submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the Bank of Korea constructed a "pessimistic scenario" aimed at assessing the impact on South Korea's economy if US tech giants cut their massive infrastructure spending. Under this scenario, the sharp drop in exports would cause South Korea's GDP growth rate next year to fall by about 0.4 percentage points; at the same time, it would also push South Korea's current account surplus far below the Bank of Korea's previous forecast of a $430 billion surplus for 2027. The scenario assumes that the unit price of South Korean semiconductor products will fall by 10%.