CITIC Securities: Export tax rebate reduction, global layout may offer a breakthrough

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that, according to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on October 12, the export tax rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9% starting April 2027. Following photovoltaics and power batteries, another category of the "new three" exports has seen its tax rebate phased down, putting short-term pressure on the industry. The current tax-related scale of automobile exports has reached the hundred-billion level, and profit divergence will intensify. Automakers can rely on overseas factories in Thailand and Brazil, adopting a dual model of domestic export plus overseas CKD production to hedge tax burdens; whole vehicles driving parts to go overseas in tandem can both absorb the pressure of rising taxes and fees and ease overseas trade frictions. The short-term trend of rapid export growth is under pressure, and export growth is expected to decline in 2027; long-term overseas competition will shift to a contest of system capabilities.