Cui Dongshu: September 2026 Passenger Vehicle Market Price Segment Tracking

Cui Dongshu wrote that price changes are mainly driven by structural changes and sales volume changes, and the volume-price relationship is inverse: prices fall as volume falls, and volume rises as prices are low. In 2025, the average price of passenger cars was 167,000 yuan, down 17,000 yuan from the 2024 average. In September 2026, the average price of passenger cars was 171,000 yuan, up 5,800 yuan from the same period last year. Among them, prices of conventional fuel vehicles continued to rise. The market contraction was very obvious in the mid- to low-end segment, while the high-end segment contracted slowly, so the average price rose from 166,000 yuan in 2021 to 188,000 yuan in 2024. In 2025, with the rapid contraction of high-end fuel vehicles, the average price in 2025 fell to 176,000 yuan. In September 2026, the average price of conventional fuel vehicles was 183,000 yuan, and the fuel vehicle market is contracting sharply across the board. In contrast, the average price of new energy vehicles has gradually declined in recent periods, from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 180,000 yuan in 2024. The average price of new energy vehicles in 2025 was 160,000 yuan, a significant price decline. However, in September 2026 it was 164,000 yuan, an increase of 9,000 yuan, with volume falling and prices rising, reflecting structural changes in new energy vehicle consumption, with entry-level consumption suppressed. In 2026, the average price of luxury cars was 330,000 yuan, down 3,000 yuan from 2025; in September 2026, the average price of luxury cars was 338,000 yuan, up 8,000 yuan from the same period last year. In 2026, the average price of joint venture brands was 171,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from 2025; in September 2026, the average price was 170,000 yuan, basically flat from the same period last year. In 2026, the average price of new forces was 232,000 yuan, down 9,000 yuan from 2025; in September 2026, the average price was 227,000 yuan, down 11,000 yuan from the same period last year. In 2026, the average price of self-owned brands was 128,000 yuan, up 7,000 yuan from the same period last year; in September 2026, the average price of self-owned brands was 127,000 yuan, up 8,000 yuan from the same period last year. China's car penetration is only 254 units per thousand people, and the popularization of car consumption is the most important trend in the future. The low cost of electrification bringing continuous declines in car prices is a trend. At present, with the exit of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, the technical indicators for new energy vehicle tax exemption have been upgraded, and some short-range and high-power-consumption models face pressure to be redesigned. The sharp contraction of A00-class electric vehicles in September brought an increase in average prices, raised the threshold for car purchases, and reduced the size of the group able to buy, putting greater pressure on sales growth in 2026.