Next week, steel prices may fluctuate within a narrow range.

This week, the market operated in a narrow range. On the supply side, rebar output rose slightly week-on-week but remained at a near-four-year low, limiting supply elasticity. On the demand side, post-holiday downstream resumption of work and concentrated restocking drove a marked rebound in apparent consumption, with the absolute level standing at the high end of the "Golden September and Silver October" range. Under a pattern of simultaneous increases in both supply and demand, inventory destocking accelerated, leaving relatively little fundamental pressure. It should be noted, however, that a considerable portion of this week's rebound in apparent demand was seasonal recovery from post-holiday resumption of work rather than a substantive expansion in end-project funding and construction starts, so the demand driver is not solid. The cost side was generally weak: after the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, coking plant profits contracted and coking coal spot prices weakened, while iron ore continued to show strong supply and weak demand, providing insufficient cost support for finished steel. Looking ahead to next week, prices are expected to operate in a narrow range. On the supply side, some steel mills in various regions have restart schedules, and rebar output may continue to increase slightly, but still-low profits will limit the room for gains, and overall output will remain at a low level. On the demand side, concentrated post-holiday restocking is unsustainable, and downstream procurement will fall week-on-week; judging from project funding and construction starts, there are no clear signs of improvement in construction steel demand for now, and apparent demand is likely to pull back from this week's high. On the inventory side, under the dual effect of low output and falling demand, destocking is expected to slow, but neither supply nor demand in absolute terms has run out of control, so inventory buildup pressure remains limited for now. The cost side is stable: after two rounds of price cuts, steel mill profits have recovered slightly and coking plant profits have contracted, easing conflicts in the industrial chain, and coke prices are temporarily stable; coking coal remains resilient under safety supervision constraints, and iron ore, despite strong supply and weak demand, has limited room for a deep decline due to steel mills' low-inventory turnover, so the overall cost curve provides neutral-to-stable support for prices. On the macro front, monetary liquidity rollovers remain accommodative and the stable-growth tone continues, but the immediate driver for spot prices is limited.