JPMorgan: CoreWeave needs to significantly accelerate capacity expansion to achieve positive free cash flow, with an inflection point expected in 2030.

JPMorgan's latest research report points out that CoreWeave needs to increase its annual net additions of active data center power by 4 to 5 times in order to reach an inflection point toward positive free cash flow. The bank expects this inflection point to occur in 2030, when the ratio of active to new capacity will reach 4.5 times. The company's current cash deficit stems from the absolute pace of capacity expansion, rather than poor unit economics at individual facilities. Specifically, each gigawatt of new capacity requires approximately $35 billion in upfront capital expenditure, while once stabilized it generates annual revenue of $10 billion to $15 billion and annual cash EBITDA of approximately $9.4 billion. Because CoreWeave had 0.85GW of active power in early 2026 and added 1.0GW during the year, its ratio of active to new capacity was only 0.9 times. The company cannot self-finance its expansion from 1.85GW at the end of 2026 to 8GW in 2030. JPMorgan forecasts that annual new capacity additions will accelerate to 1.5GW in 2027, rise to 1.6GW in 2028, increase to 1.6GW in 2029, and reach 4.5 times when 1.5GW is added in 2030. As the number of gigawatts in stable operation continues to accumulate, the cash EBITDA generated by mature capacity will expand rapidly, enough to absorb the $35 billion per gigawatt of capital expenditure required for new facilities.