Sealand Securities: Maintains "Buy" Rating on Alibaba-W, Target Price HK$184

Sealand Securities released a research report stating that, considering the continued acceleration of cloud revenue/profit growth, the orderly narrowing of losses in the instant retail business, and the gradual stabilization of the traditional e-commerce business, it has adjusted its earnings forecast for Alibaba-W. It estimates that the company's revenue for FY2027-2029 will be RMB 1,131.2 billion/1,286.2 billion/1,488.6 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 95.5 billion/155.8 billion/214.9 billion, respectively, and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 136.0 billion/175.8 billion/236.3 billion, respectively, corresponding to P/E of 18.6x/11.4x/8.3x. Under a neutral scenario, it assigns Alibaba a total target market capitalization of RMB 3,113.4 billion for FY2028, corresponding to a target price of RMB 156/HKD 184, and maintains a "Buy" rating.