Super El Nio is coming! Will this winter be colder or warmer?

From a historical overall perspective, during the winter of the mature phase of El Nio, the East Asian winter monsoon tends to be weaker, the possibility of higher winter temperatures in China increases somewhat, and precipitation in some southern regions also tends to be above normal. However, this is only a statistical tendency, not the same every time. Whether the center of the sea surface temperature anomaly is shifted east or west, how quickly the event develops, and the activity of cold air from the north during the same period all affect the outcome. Therefore, the "warming tendency" cannot be described as a uniformly warm winter across the entire country. Whether China's winter is cold or warm also depends on how northern cold air accumulates and from where it moves southward to invade China. The strength of the Siberian High, the position of the polar vortex, and the circulation pattern over the Eurasian continent all affect cold air activity. At the same time, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover, and sea surface temperatures in other ocean regions may also play a role. Even if the seasonal average temperature is above normal, once a circulation adjustment occurs and creates conditions for cold air to move southward on a large scale, sharp temperature drops can still occur within a short period. For example, the strong cold wave in January 2016 occurred against the backdrop of a super strong El Nio. For the public, it is important not to focus only on the words "warm winter," but even more on cold wave and gale warnings in short-term forecasts. The south in particular should guard against possible rain, snow, and freezing that may occur when cold air meets abundant moisture, while the north should pay attention to the effects of sharp temperature drops, strong winds, and snow and ice. Transportation, agricultural production, and energy supply guarantees, among others, must not relax preparations simply because of a judgment that the overall winter will be warmer.