CITIC Securities: In the fourth quarter of 2026, the valuation and profits of oil tanker leaders are expected to hit historic highs.

CITIC Securities research report states that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to pre-war levels. The substantial growth in cargo volumes and the limited list of available vessels are driving VLCC freight rates to continue rising, and the spillover has begun to affect Suezmax. Saudi Arabia's expanded discounts continue to stimulate cargo volumes, with STS transfers being the primary delivery method at present. Non-traditional loading and unloading operations, combined with shuttle tanker capacity constraints, continue to erode effective VLCC capacity, which cannot match the growing cargo volumes. As the frequency of vessel attacks has increased recently, damaged vessels are difficult to repair, further eroding effective VLCC capacity, and VLCC freight rates may rise further. Cracking spreads are expected to remain elevated, refinery procurement willingness remains ample, energy supply is gradually shifting toward stability as the priority, and seasonal rigid demand combined with voyage distance growth brought about by shifts in trade flows is expected to bring a turning point for refined product transportation. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the valuation and profits of tanker leaders are expected to hit historic highs.