Sugar prices strong abroad, weak at home; supply-demand expectation gap may be key to future price trends.

During the National Day holiday, the international raw sugar market was truly "on fire"! ICE raw sugar futures prices climbed all the way, breaking through the 20 cents/lb integer mark and hitting a nearly 19-month high. However, after the holiday, domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures prices failed to sustain the strong rally, briefly spiking before settling into a rangebound pattern. Industry insiders said that Brazilian supply disruptions and concerns over reduced output in India and Thailand triggered by the El Nino event jointly pushed up international sugar prices, but high domestic inventories and expectations of increased production in the new crushing season are still weighing on Zhengzhou sugar futures. In the short term, strength in overseas markets is expected to lift the center of domestic sugar price movements, but it is unlikely to directly trigger a one-way rally. It is worth noting that there may be a discrepancy between the growth of domestic sugarcane and market expectations for higher output. Once subsequent production falls short of expectations, the logic driving Zhengzhou sugar futures higher may undergo an important shift.