Guosheng Securities: Global chemical industry asset spending peaks; geopolitical conflicts accelerate cyclical recovery.

Guosheng Securities research report states that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the chemical industry continues to decline, and the pressure from future new supply is gradually weakening. With the exit of high-cost production capacity, industry inventory digestion, and geopolitical conflicts compressing effective supply, the report is bullish on a cyclical recovery in the chemical industry and recommends focusing on the following main lines: 1. Leading enterprises are expected to unleash profit elasticity; 2. Oil and gas resources, private large-scale refining and chemical assets, and coal chemical assets are expected to undergo value reassessment; 3. High-prosperity sub-sectors with strong supply constraints and the first to see inventory and profitability improvements; 4. Policies such as "dual carbon" and "anti-involution" promoting constraints on new investment and optimization of existing production capacity; 5. Downstream demand growth in AI, semiconductors, new energy, and energy storage, driving the expansion and accelerated domestic substitution of segmented fields such as fluoropolymers, electronic chemicals, and semiconductor materials.